Morning wrap (16.03.2026)

US stock indices are recovering last week's selloff, though true rebound remains endagered by new developments in Iran (US500: +0,4%, US2000: +0,6%).

Brent adds another 1% to near $105 following the attack on Kharg Island (which handles 90% of Iran's exports). Globally, approximately 400 million barrels of reserves have been released (global daily demand is roughly 100 million). Trump is pressuring NATO and China to support "patrolling" the Strait of Hormuz, threatening Xi Jinping with the cancellation of the April summit. Additionally, a drone attack on fuel tanks in Dubai forced flight suspensions. Trump further emphasized a “very bad future” if NATO does not support the U.S. in its actions regarding Iran.

Iran’s ambassador in Riyadh called for a “serious review” of regional relations, criticizing the reliance on external powers during the war with the U.S. and Israel. Over 2,000 attacks have been recorded in the region since February 28, though Tehran denies striking Saudi oil infrastructure. Riyadh declares that its territory will not be used for aggression, despite growing frustration among Gulf states caught in the conflict.

Asian stock markets generally began the new week with declines, weighed down by oil prices remaining above $100, though buyers limited the weakness toward the end of the session. The Nikkei 225 lost about 0.1% (after hitting -1.2% at its low), and the Shanghai Composite slipped around 0.4% despite positive Chinese industrial production data. The KOSPI bounced back from its daily low and is currently up 1.2%.

The Chinese economy entered 2026 with optimism: industrial production rose by 6.3% (forecast: 5.3%), and retail sales grew by 2.8% (forecast: 2.6%). Fixed-asset investment increased by 1.8%, breaking the previous downward trend. However, this optimism is tempered by the unemployment rate (5.3%) and a further 11.1% decline in property investment. The escalation of the war in Iran is destabilizing trade and energy prices, which may prompt Beijing to delay planned interest rate cuts.

New Zealand’s services sector returned to contraction in February. The PSI index fell to 48.0 points, ending a brief recovery. Negative sentiment (56.4%) is fueled by the effects of inflation and weak demand. This result is a disappointment, especially compared to the optimistic manufacturing data released earlier.

The Dollar Index remains largely unchanged. The main source of FX volatility comes from Antipodean currencies, which are rebounding after renewed downward pressure at the end of last week (AUDUSD, NZDUSD: +0.25%). EURUSD is trading flat at 1.1427.

Silver is pulling back 0.8% to $80 per ounce, while Gold is slightly in the red (-0.05%), trading at $5025. Platinum and Palladium, meanwhile, are rebounding by about 1.1%.

Bitcoin continues its gradual recovery, gaining 1.5% to $73,800, while Ethereum adds another 3.8% to $2,270.