Morning wrap (30.12.2025)

Wall Street ended its holiday rally yesterday and shifted into defensive mode ahead of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting (S&P 500: -0.35%, Nasdaq and DJIA: -0.5%). U.S. index futures are trading slightly in the red, pointing to ongoing pressure related to expectations for the pace of interest rate cuts in 2026.

Ukraine’s president said that during talks with U.S. President Donald Trump he sought security guarantees for up to 50 years, although the current draft agreement envisages 15 years. He stressed that talks with Russia could only take place after arrangements with Europe, and that any peace deal would require a referendum during a ceasefire, amid unresolved territorial disputes and Russia’s refusal to agree to a truce.

During a press conference, Donald Trump said he is likely to nominate a new Fed chair in January, while simultaneously testing markets with a micro-attack on Jerome Powell. The U.S. president again said he would like Powell to step down and that he "would love to fire him". The dollar, however, showed little reaction (USDIDX slightly below zero).

Sentiment across Asia-Pacific reflects the cautious tone on Wall Street (AU200.cash: -0.2%; JP225: +0.03%; KOSPI: -0.15%), but the absence of clear negative catalysts and enthusiasm around AI-related IPOs are driving a rebound in China (CHN.cash: +1.5%; HK.cash: +1.25%). The main mover is Baidu, linked to GPU maker Shanghai Biren Technology, whose IPO saw retail subscriptions exceed allocations by 2,363 times, lifting the broader regional tech sector.

The FX market is holding its breath ahead of the FOMC minutes, with the main theme a mild pullback in the dollar after yesterday’s gains. The yen is also correcting slightly against other G10 currencies (EURJPY: +0.1%; USDJPY flat). The Antipodean currencies are leading gains for now (AUDUSD: +0.35%, NZDUSD: +0.25%), while EURUSD is up 0.1% at 1.178.

Precious metals remain in focus and are rebounding modestly after yesterday’s sell-off. Silver is up 3.7% to USD 74.83 per ounce, while gold gains 0.7% to USD 4,363 per ounce.

Brent and WTI crude are gradually erasing Friday’s sell-off (+0.2% and +0.3% respectively), reacting to the lack of a breakthrough in peace talks over the war in Ukraine. In addition, China is expected to continue aggressively building crude oil inventories to absorb excess supply.

Volatility in major cryptocurrencies is muted today. Bitcoin is up 0.14% at USD 87,462, while Ethereum gains 0.3% to USD 2,948.