Morning Wrap: Records on Wall Street in anticipation of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz (16.04.2026)

• Unofficial information indicates that Iran is proposing a partial opening of the Strait of Hormuz using Oman's territorial waters. Crude oil is currently not reacting to this news and is opening at yesterday's closing levels.

• Such a proposal is conditioned on progress in talks with the United States.

• Both sides are also considering extending the ceasefire for another two weeks. The term of the first ceasefire expires next Tuesday.

• Brent crude is trading slightly below $95 per barrel, just before the rollover of futures contracts. WTI crude, after the rollover, is trading lower at $88 per barrel.

• Gold remains above $4,800 per ounce but is not continuing the strong rebound from the beginning of the week, which is linked to huge uncertainty in the markets.

• At the same time, we are observing records on the US500 despite the ongoing war in Iran, which is linked to good corporate earnings. US500 reached a level of nearly 7,080 points, gaining 0.3% today. A similar situation is occurring on the US100, where the index contract is breaking through historical peaks and approaching the 26,500 points level.

• EURUSD is breaching the 1.1800 level, but the pair's gains are linked more to expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East than to expectations of hikes by the ECB.

• The conflict within the Fed continues. Warsh's hearings may start next week, while Trump continues to threaten to fire Powell if he does not later resign from his position as governor.

• UK GDP for February grew stronger than expected. Annually, it is an increase of 1.0% y/y, while monthly we have a rebound of 0.5% m/m. GBPUSD is testing the area of the 1.3600 level.

• During the Asian session, we learned mixed data from China. GDP data turned out better than expected, but at the same time, we have weak data regarding real estate prices and retail sales.

• GDP for Q1 in China is growing by 5.0% y/y against expectations of 4.8% y/y and the previous level of 4.5% y/y.

• Retail sales grew by only 1.7% y/y, against expectations of 2.3% y/y and the previous level of 2.8% y/y. In turn, industrial production grew slightly more than expected at 5.7% y/y against expectations of 5.5% y/y, but this is a slowdown from 6.3% y/y.

• Muller from the ECB indicates that a move on interest rates during the April meeting is not excluded, although most members of the bank point rather to a hold. Until recently, the market was pricing in 100% certainty of an interest rate hike by mid-year.

• Bitcoin was traded yesterday at its highest since the beginning of February, breaching the 75,000 points level.

• TSMC reports record results in Q1 2026, showing net profit growth of 58% y/y, to the level of $18.1 billion. The company's gross margin came in at 66.2%. Net sales amounted to nearly $36 billion, which represents a 40% year-on-year increase.

• Today, after the Wall Street session, Netflix will present its results.

US500 reaches new historical peaks, breaking through 7,000 points yesterday, and moving in previously uncharted waters today. Source: xStation5