Natural gas prices continue to decline

While crude oil is one of the most boring markets right now, with the price soaring above $ 40 a barrel and stalling near pandemic highs, a lot is happening in the US gas market. We recently presented the fundamental situation and weather factors. The weather is still very good, which causes very little gas consumption for this period of the year. All this means that we are dealing with an extremely large increase in inventories!

Today's data showed that inventories increased by 31 billion cubic feet, with a recent increase of 8 billion. Despite a period in which we should already see a decline in inventories, they were expected to increase by 15 billion cubic feet. Therefore, it can be seen that even with a limited supply (lower production and lower imports), demand cannot cope. As a result, gas prices dropped by over 20% from the peak (even with a double positive rollover). Had it not been for the recent rollover, gas prices would have been trading around $ 2.5 per MMBTU.

Gas inventories have returned to their recent highs, although they are just slightly below the 5-year range. However, it can be seen that during the last year gas inventories have been falling for several weeks in the same period. We are currently seeing an increase in inventories. Source: EIA

The next rollover will take place in a month. Theoretically, the price of the next contract is very similar to the current one, but a lot can change. The seasonality indicates further declines until the middle of next month, that is, roughly until the next rollover. The nearest key support, besides the 2.5 level, is located around 2.4-2.45 area, near the local lows from the beginning of October. Gas remains heavily overbought by speculators who still expect the weather to worsen. November accounts only for 18% of the entire heating season, so one can see that a lot can still happen. Nevertheless, the fundamental factors indicate a further continuation of declines, at least in the near term. Source: xStation5

17 October 2025, 6:28 PM

VIX drops 10% amid Wall Street rebound attempt🗽

17 October 2025, 5:50 PM

3 markets to watch next week - (17.10.2025)

17 October 2025, 5:19 PM

Precious metals decline 📉Gold down 2%; Silver loses 4%

17 October 2025, 6:48 AM

Morning wrap (17.10.2025)

commodities

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
_cfuvid

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-98728395-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 730 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
_ttp	Expiration date 89 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 89 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days

Natural gas prices continue to decline

Join over 1 700 000 XTB Group Clients from around the world