NFP preview: solid data might be unnoticed

NFP can top market estimates
Strong number could at least stop USD slide
Watch out for Canadian data

The NFP report is normally a big time for forex traders but this time around it might go unnoticed. The reason of course is the coronavirus and the damage it could cause to the economy and the resulting central banks action. But let’s focus on the report first.

The consensus says +160k of employment in February and there are some good reasons to believe it might be beaten. First the ADP print was solid for the second month in the row and showed +183k. Second, composite employment ISM was at 54,3 points – the highest since July last year.

Strong ISM employment indices suggest an upbeat NFP print. Source: Macrobond, XTB Research

Moreover, February was exceptionally strong in 2011-2019 period and while the data is seasonally adjusted, the adjustment might not be perfect. All these factors suggests the reading has a healthy chance of being above the consensus +160k. Having said that, the data is highly volatile and there’s no guarantee of a “beat” even if other stats are suggesting it.

February was the strongest month in 2011-2019 period. Source: Macrobond, XTB Research

More importantly, markets are now focused solely on the virus spread and its impact on the economy. The satellite data already shows a limited traffic across US major cities – a proxy of economic activity.

USDCAD is the market where we can see a strong reaction as the report will be published in both US and Canada. Source: xStation5

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NFP preview: solid data might be unnoticed

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