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NFP report release at 1:30 pm BST
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ADP report hinted on a disappointing jobs growth
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EURUSD pulls back from 1.19 area
The US labour market data for July will be released today at 1:30 pm BST and is unquestionably the most important event to watch today. Headline number will be in focus as some unemployment benefits expired in late-July and the Congress has failed to agree on any extension yet. However, as NFP reports mostly rely on data from the first half of the month, lack of support for US employees may not be visible just yet but during next month's revision.
Expectations
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appMedian estimate points to 1580k increase in employment following a 4800k gain in June. In turn, the unemployment rate is seen falling to 10.5% from 11.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to decline 0.5% MoM and rise 4.2% YoY. ADP employment report released on Wednesday pointed to a small 167k increase in employment against expected 1500k. However, ADP reports credibility and forecasting abilities have been questionable in recent months, so investors should not rule out a bigger employment gain than 167k.
Markets to watch
EURUSD is one of the markets to watch amid the release. The US dollar has weakened significantly recently. However, the main currency pair has failed to break above 1.1900 handle twice already. Strong labour market report as hinted by Donald Trump earlier this week could support USD and push the pair further away from recent peak. In such a scenario, 1.1800 and 1.1725 will be two support levels to watch in the near future.
Data release is also likely to have an impact on the precious metals market. Commodities like gold or silver benefited from a flood of cheap money and significant weakening of the USD dollar recently. Strong release could trigger a correction on the silver market which has rallied 50% over the month. Elevated volatility may also be present on USDCAD market as Canadian labour market report for July will be released at 1:30 pm BST as well.
EURUSD is pulling back after a failed attempt of breaking above resistance zone at 1.1900. Source: xStation5
