Oil gains 3% amid US - Iran escalation and supply disruption on the Black Sea

Oil is climbing toward $95 per barrel as investors continue to see little sign of constructive progress between the United States and Iran regarding the proposed 10-day ceasefire. Instead, President Donald Trump warned Tehran that any future attack on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz would result in the destruction of "one power plant or one bridge" in Iran.

Key facts

President Trump said Americans support the military campaign despite not wanting higher gasoline prices, adding that Iran bears full responsibility and will be held accountable for the deaths of U.S. soldiers. Meanwhile, Axios reported that discussions are underway regarding a potential Oval Office meeting between Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran is not serious about reaching an agreement with Washington. Markets interpreted his remarks as evidence of deep strategic differences between the two countries and a signal that further military escalation remains likely.
The U.S. military has now carried out its eleventh consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military targets. At the same time, Washington reaffirmed its commitment to protecting commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over global oil supply risks.
Alongside tensions in the Persian Gulf, Russia's CPC terminal on the Black Sea has suspended oil intake from Kazakhstan following renewed attacks on tankers. The disruption has added to concerns about global crude supply and longer-term market stability.

OIL (D1 chart)

Looking at the Fibonacci retracement levels of the latest bearish move in crude oil, the $98 and $102.50 per barrel levels stand out as the key resistance zones. Both coincide with important price reactions recorded in May. Since the recent local low near $70 per barrel, oil prices have already rebounded by more than 30%.

Source: xStation5

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