Oil remains higher despite another inventory build

Summary:

EIA weekly crude oil inventory: +4.9M vs +2.5M exp
9th consecutive weekly build
Oil higher on the day but still not far key support

Yet another weekly crude oil inventory release from the US has shown a build, with the latest coming in above both the median estimate and also the corresponding private release. The reading of +4.9M was comfortably higher than the median estimate of +2.5M and also last night’s surprise 1.5M drawdown in the API equivalent. The rise is a staggering 9th consecutive increase, but it should be noted that the size of the increase is actually not that high compared to recent prints with only 1 of the last 8 showing a smaller rise.

Given the build the market reaction has been fairly muted with Oil falling a little lower but still remaining higher on the day by a little of 1%. Price had earlier moved up to as high as 64.26 but was drifting back before the data and has since dropped lower near to the $63 handle. Source: xStation

Looking past the headline number the subcomponents of the release were fairly mixed on the whole, with the following listed in the format of actual vs expected unless otherwise stated:

Gasoline: -1.3M vs +0.1M
Distillates: -0.1M vs -2.5M
Production unchanged: 11.7M bpd

The longer term picture for the Oil market remains one of a clear downtrend with just about every indicator supporting this view. However, Tuesday’s low of 61.77 coincides neatly with the bottom seen back in January. It is rare that markets turn immediately after reaching a key swing level even if it does hold eventually. A shorter term double bottom around 61.77 could occur and this would see a longer term one possibly forming but any long positions would need to be careful below there as a breach underneath would open up the possibility of another larger leg lower.

Oil has bounced today but remains under pressure longer term. A double bottom at 61.77 is possibly forming but given the momentum of the recent declines a break below there could see a swift extension lower. Source: xStation

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
_cfuvid

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-98728395-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 730 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
_ttp	Expiration date 89 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 89 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days