Oil supply remains limited

11:22 AM 19 September 2022

Oil is having a mixed start to a new week, what can be reasoned with strong US dollar and uncertainty over demand in China. On the other hand, some downbeat supply news:

  • OPEC+ have been as much as 3.6 million bpd short of its output goal in August. Shortage widened from 2.9 million bpd in July

  • Russian maritime oil exports are shrinking according to flash data for the first half of September

  • Talks on Iran nuclear deal have are in deadlock

Early data shows that Russian maritime oil exports are struggling. Exports to India remain low and those may increase. Nevertheless, data shows that Russia may struggle to find a market for its oil once EU sanctions take full effect by the end of this year. Source: S&P Global, Bloomberg

Oil is trading slightly lower today but fundamentals show that the world may see a shortage of commodities. In case demand drops, price could continue an ongoing trend but so far the world does not seem to be in any deep economic crisis. Moreover, the US will stop releasing strategic reserves in October, which may provide a fuel for price rebound as well. Source: xStation5

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