SAP loses 4% despite positive recommendation at Bernstein 📉

Bernstein SocGen Group has reiterated its Outperform rating on SAP shares and maintained its price target at $322 (€278), compared to the current price of €153 per share. Bernstein analysts view supply chain management software as one of the most compelling long-term investment themes.

• In their view, global supply chains are being rebuilt in real time, driven by geopolitical shocks, inflation, ESG requirements, and rising customer expectations. In this environment, supply chain management systems are becoming the digital backbone of this transformation. An additional catalyst is artificial intelligence, which is accelerating the shift from simple modernization to a full-scale reinvention of the technological landscape.
• This, in turn, is supporting growth across software, services, and cloud infrastructure. According to Bernstein, SAP is particularly well positioned to benefit from this trend. This view is supported by the company’s broad and comprehensive product offering, deep integration with ERP systems, and the ongoing migration to S/4, which can naturally drive further adoption of supply chain solutions.
• SAP also benefits from high switching costs for customers and long-standing enterprise relationships, which strengthen its competitive position in the market. At the same time, the company recently reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results, which came in below analyst expectations.
• Earnings per share (EPS) amounted to $1.62, compared to the expected $1.76, representing a negative surprise of 7.95%. Revenue also disappointed, with SAP reporting $9.68 billion versus expectations of $11.35 billion, a shortfall of 14.71%.

Despite the weaker results, the company announced plans to distribute approximately €2.92 billion in dividends based on its 2025 performance. The proposed dividend is €2.50 per share, marking a 6.4% year-over-year increase. This move signals that, despite pressure on earnings, SAP remains committed to returning capital to shareholders and maintaining an attractive shareholder payout policy.

Source: xStation5