Strong Sell-off in Coffee and Cocoa

After three days of solid growth in the coffee market, a strong pullback and price drop occurred. The sell-off affected both Arabica and Robusta, and was also accompanied by drops in the cocoa market.

Over the 12-month perspective, the price of cocoa remains clearly lower, Robusta has fallen below the levels from last July, and Arabica is holding slightly above. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

Arabica: Profit-taking and Weaker Real

Arabica recorded a steep decline today—losing up to 4.2% during the New York session. Several factors converged on this:

Profit-taking and Exchange Rate: The sell-off is largely a result of profit-taking after Tuesday's increase to two-week highs. The pretext was the fall in the Brazilian real's exchange rate (USD/BRL at a 2.5-week high), which encourages local producers to increase export sales.
Accelerated Harvest: Although previous heavy rains in Minas Gerais state significantly slowed down work (Brazil's harvest is estimated at 64% compared to 77% a year ago), forecasts for the coming weeks predict the return of dry and warm weather. This should efficiently accelerate the harvesting of beans and alleviate supply concerns.
Low Inventories as a Buffer: A factor supporting Arabica in the long term remains its inventories on the ICE exchange, which have fallen to a 2.5-year low (289,759 bags).

Arabica falls after strong gains yesterday to the 50.0 retracement of the last downtrend wave. Source: xStation5

Robusta: Good Weather in Vietnam Hits Prices

In terms of fundamentals, Robusta has received the most negative news recently, but the declines are slightly smaller than for Arabica.

Reduced El Niño Fears: Favorable monsoon rains in Vietnam (the world's largest robusta producer) clearly alleviated concerns about crop failure caused by drought.
Inventory Increase: In contrast to Arabica, robusta inventories monitored by the ICE exchange defended themselves after recent lows and are drifting in the region of 4-month highs. As a result, the London exchange pushed robusta prices down

The price of Robusta is also under significant supply pressure. Source: xStation5

Cocoa Under Pressure

The weaker atmosphere in the agricultural commodities market also affected cocoa. Contracts for this commodity in New York fell by 1% today, fitting into the general corrective movement in the soft commodities market.

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Commodities

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