TNOTE bounced off a very important level as following recent inflation figures that indicate that prices are not easing as fast as the market would like. Interestingly, the move on TNOTE is the only move that persisted after the release of inflation. EURUSD pair resumed upward wave similar to US indices.
TNOTE retreated from the 115 level and is now trading near the local May/June lows. If current sentiment prevails downward move may move toward 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last downward impulse at 114. On the other hand, next week we have 2 important events - release of US CPI inflation figures and Fed decision. If markets will perceive CPI data as disinflationary and the Fed will announce that the end of the cycle is near, then TNOTE may break above the aforementioned resistance at 115 and 50.0% retracement. However, if Powell maintains his very strong hawkish stance, a break below 114 is very likely. In this scenario downward move may deepen towards the 112-113 range by the end of this year. Source: xStation5
