Summary:
- Strong sell-off on the crypto market, BTC trades over 15% lower this week
- USDPLN rallies after bouncing off the support at 3.90 handle
- US500 struggles this week, bigger pullback ahead?
Bitcoin is one of the worst performing assets this week as it trades over 15% lower against last week’s close. Looking at the D1 interval, one can see a clear break below 10,000 USD. Previous dips below this level were quickly recouped by buyers, but this time the sellers took control over the market. The negative sentiment could result in a pullback to as low as the 61.8% ($7,250) Fibonacci retracement of an upward move started in December 2018. In case this support fails to fend off the bears, a drop towards the lower limit of the downward channel may be on the cards.
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BTCUSD D1 interval. Source: xStation5
The Polish zloty has been under pressure since the previous week, when the exact date of EU top court ruling on FX-mortgages was announced (3 October). The upward move continues after the weekend and the USDPLN currency pair managed to reach YTD highs. The pair is struggling in the vicinity of 4.00 handle at the moment, but the main trend remains upwards. In case a break higher is delivered, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (4.0750) should be the first level to watch. On the other hand, the zone around 3.90 handle remains the key support and as long as the market stays above it, the trend remains upward.
USDPLN W1 interval. Source: xStation5
Last but not least, let's take a look at the US S&P 500 index (US500), where one can observe a steep sell-off. Falls were triggered after the index failed to break above the resistance near its ATHs. In case the weekly candlestick closes at or below the current level, the downward move may accelerate and deepen. In such a scenario, sellers could aim at the lower limit of the upward channel. On the other hand, Overbalance methodology suggests that as long as the price stays above lows from August, the trend remains unchanged. One should also keep in mind the zone around 2750 points handle, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement could act as a potential support.
US500 W1 interval. Source: xStation5
