US indices pull back as Fed rate hike odds rise

4:28 PM May 31, 2023

US indices are pulling back today with the move lower accelerating after US job openings  (JOLTS) data for April. Data showed an unexpected increase in US job openings from 9.745 million to 10.1 million. Data for March was revised higher from 9.59 to 9.745 million. Meanwhile, the market expected JOLTS to continue losing streak launched at the beginning of this year and drop to 9.4 million.

This is a clearly hawkish data from Fed's point of view as it hints at still-strong labor market. This combined with reaching of US debt ceiling agreement is driving market pricing of Fed rate hikes higher. Money markets are currently pricing in an around-70% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the FOMC meeting in June (June 14, 2023). This compares to an around-60% chance priced in yesterday.

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Small-cap Russell 2000 (US2000) is a top laggard among Wall Street indices today with a 1.5% drop at press time. Dow Jones (US30), Nasdaq-100 (US100) and S&P 500 (US500) trade around 0.8% lower on the day each. S&P 500 is now trading more or less flat month-to-date.

US500 is pulling back today and looking towards a retest of the price zone marked with 50% retracement of the downward impulse launched at the beginning of 2022. However, this time the area will be tested as a support. Source: xStation5


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