US OPEN: Concerns about OpenAI’s drag the whole market lower

The Wall Street session is opening amid concerns about the profitability of the “AI” sector. Sentiment is also weighed down by the lack of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. Futures on the major US indices are lower; the US100 is leading the declines, sliding by more than 1% around the open.

• The WSJ reported on Monday that OpenAI failed to reach a key milestone related to revenue and user numbers. This sparked anxiety across the technology sector, with particularly sharp declines seen among companies most dependent on OpenAI.
  • OpenAI has also reshaped its cooperation agreement with Microsoft. Microsoft has been stripped of an exclusivity clause related to licensing the technology.
  • A court case between OpenAI and Elon Musk is also set to begin on Thursday. Musk is seeking USD 150 billion in damages from the start-up, arguing that the company unlawfully changed its status from non-profit to commercial.
• Communication from the White House regarding the negotiations has been limited, but officials have expressed disappointment and impatience with Iran’s stance.
  • Iranian representatives are sticking to their maximalist demands, calling for control over the strait, security guarantees, and recognition of the right to enrich uranium.

Macroeconomic data

• The Conference Board will publish its Consumer Confidence Index 30 minutes after the session opens. Market consensus expects a decline from 91.8 to 89.3 points.

US100 (D1)

Buyers have clearly taken the initiative in recent days, decisively pushing above the EMA200 moving average and then driving price toward a new high. Such a long bullish streak will become increasingly difficult to sustain; the RSI is holding around ~70. If attempts are made to push the price lower, a clearly defined resistance zone between the 23.6 and 38.2 Fibonacci levels will be key. Source: xStation5

Company news

• CoreWeave (CRWV.US) & Oracle (ORCL.US): both stocks are down nearly 5% following reports of setbacks on OpenAI’s side.
• Meta (META.US): the Chinese government blocked the purchase of the “Manus” AI model amid national security concerns. The stock is down more than 1%.
• Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY1.US): the company reported results that significantly beat EPS expectations. Loss per share fell to USD 0.24 versus expectations of around USD 0.33. The stock is up more than 25%.
• UPS (UPS.US): the courier company is down more than 4% despite decent results for Q1 2026. Analysts point to the lack of an expected increase in the company’s conservative financial targets.
• Coca-Cola (CCH.UK): the food and beverage group reported results for Q1 2026. The company met expectations for revenue and profitability; the stock is up about 3%.