US Open: Macro Up, Tensions Down!

Today’s picture on Wall Street is shaped by the simultaneous impact of two key drivers: stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and a shifting geopolitical backdrop, which in the short term is clearly influencing investors’ risk appetite. The market is trying to assess both the real strength of the U.S. consumer and the scale of potential risks stemming from tensions in the Middle East, resulting in elevated volatility but also support for equity indices.

On the macroeconomic side, the most important data point is U.S. retail sales, which came in significantly above expectations. Part of this increase was driven by higher gasoline prices, which lift nominal sales figures, but there was also visible strength in the underlying reading excluding the most volatile components. This suggests that the consumer remains active despite ongoing cost pressures and high interest rates. The market interprets this as a sign that the U.S. economy is not heading into a sharp slowdown, but rather into a more controlled cooling of activity. In this environment, overall sentiment improves and risk appetite in equities increases.

An additional factor reinforcing this picture is the impact of energy prices on economic data. Higher fuel costs, driven by geopolitical tensions, directly inflate nominal retail sales figures while partially distorting the view of underlying consumer strength. As a result, the data looks very solid on the headline level, but its structure requires more cautious interpretation, as it does not fully reflect the real dynamics of spending.

The second key pillar of today’s move is geopolitics, where signals of a possible resumption of talks between the United States and Iran are emerging, alongside persistent uncertainty and conflicting messages from the region. Even the prospect of dialogue, however uncertain, tends to calm markets as it reduces fears of further escalation and potential disruptions in energy markets. This in turn lowers the risk premium and supports flows into risk assets.

As a result, we are seeing a combination of relatively strong U.S. economic data and a temporary improvement in geopolitical sentiment. This mix naturally supports equity indices and fuels gains, although it remains a conditional environment highly sensitive to shifts in both macro data and political developments.

Source: xStation5

U.S. S&P 500 futures (US500) are posting slight gains today, driven by surprisingly strong retail sales data. The figures show that U.S. consumer demand remains resilient, easing concerns about a sharp deterioration in economic momentum and supporting equity valuations. Additionally, investors are reacting positively to signals suggesting a potential resumption of U.S.–Iran talks, which temporarily ease geopolitical tensions and improve overall market sentiment.

Source: xStation5

Company News

UnitedHealth (UNH.US) significantly surprised the market with better-than-expected Q1 2026 results and raised its full-year earnings guidance, signaling continued strong operational performance. In addition, a $2 billion share buyback program further strengthened the positive reaction and supported the stock price. The market interprets this as confirmation that the company remains one of the most stable leaders in the healthcare sector.

Amazon (AMZN.US) is rising after announcing a major acceleration in artificial intelligence through an expanded partnership with Anthropic and a significant investment package. The partnership strengthens AWS’s position as a core infrastructure provider for AI development, while the scale of planned spending and computing capacity suggests very strong long-term demand for Amazon’s services. The market views this as another step in reinforcing Amazon’s leadership in the global AI race.

RTX (RTX.US) is higher after delivering very strong Q1 results that beat expectations on both revenue and earnings. The company also raised parts of its full-year outlook, which the market interpreted as confirmation of sustained strong demand in the defense sector and a gradual recovery in commercial aviation. This continues to support the broader defense industry, where order volumes remain high and contract inflows are stable.

Northrop Grumman (NOC.US), despite better-than-expected results, came under mild selling pressure as investors focused on full-year guidance that did not provide a clear upside surprise. While the company delivered solid revenue and earnings, the lack of a stronger upward revision to the outlook limited market enthusiasm. At the same time, the sector fundamentals remain strong, supported by high defense budgets and a robust pipeline of orders, which continues to underpin the long-term investment case.

Apple (AAPL.US) announced a major leadership change, with Tim Cook set to step down as CEO and transition to the role of chairman of the board, while John Ternus will take over as CEO. The news has triggered a mixed reaction among investors.