US OPEN: Shallow rebound in the shadow of a weak labor market

Extremely outsized labor market data briefly overshadowed developments in the Persian Gulf and the earnings season. A major disappointment in the form of a drop in NFP pushed the dollar lower and helped spark a modest rebound in the main indices. US100 & US500 limit thier gains to ~0,5%. 

The decline in NFP and a sharp slowdown in wage growth (close to 0% month over month) significantly change market pricing for the Fed’s monetary policy, supporting equity valuations despite problems in the labor market. Gold prices are also rising.

Equity-market anxiety has clearly shifted to the bond market. US Treasury yields are surging, and the market is increasingly questioning the Fed’s credibility, an important test for the new chair so soon after the nomination.

The situation in the Persian Gulf remains ambiguous. The exchange of fire has temporarily paused, and Iran is reportedly negotiating with Oman on an agreement that would partially normalize transit through the strait.

Moves in the NASDAQ100

Today’s moves in the technology index are focused on SaaS companies and selected semiconductor manufacturers. This is a consequence of the earnings season, which is seriously calling into question the rationale behind the “SaaS apocalypse” narrative. Larger companies are moving in the opposite direction, mainly semiconductors and retailers. The latter may come under potential pressure from falling earnings.

Company news

• Atlassian Corp (TEAM.US): The enterprise software provider crushes AI and SaaS concerns, reporting phenomenal growth in Q2 2026. The stock jumps more than 30% at the US open. The company clearly beat expectations across all categories, with receivables growth of around 40% standing out.
• Cloudflare (NET.US): The cybersecurity-focused company eases concerns about margin compression with its Q2 2026 results. Revenue and profit expectations were beaten by about 5%, but management guidance was the key focus. On the wave of demand for cloud solutions, year-end revenue is expected to exceed USD 2.86 billion. The stock rises about 15%.
• Airbnb (ABNB.US) : The short-term rental platform operator posted Q2 2026 results showing 17% revenue growth, well above expectations. The stock gains about 8%.
• Hertz (HTZ1.US): The car rental company continues its rally on the back of Q2 results. As some analysts expected, the World Cup proved to be a turning point, and the company surprised with EPS nearly twice as good as the market expected. It is worth noting, however, that EPS is still negative (a loss). The stock gains about 30%.

Technical analysis US100 (D1)

Price has broken out of the downtrend while defending the EMA 100 and EMA 200. Demand has clearly and fairly abruptly regained the initiative, though some time may pass before another sustained upswing begins. RSI supports this view, having normalized just as quickly after falling to record lows. The upper boundary of the former downtrend may now act as support, as may the EMA 100. At present, the main challenge for buyers will be to break above the ~30,000 level and continue climbing toward 31,000 to 32,000 points. Source: xStation 5

Macroeconomic data

The key data on Friday’s session were the July NFP figures.

• NFP came in at -23k versus expectations of around 80k. None of the major investment banks or analytical centers published an accurate forecast. As this phenomenon has begun to repeat in recent months, more questions are being raised about data quality and the true state of the US labor market. Negative revisions to prior months do not improve the outlook.

• Following the NFP report, average hourly earnings growth slowed. On a month-over-month basis, the growth rate fell to 0.1% (versus 0.3% expected).
• Despite weak NFP data, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, this is a byproduct of a lower labor force participation rate, which is a consequence of the aging US population.