US OPEN: SpaceX pushes Amazon off the TOP 5 podium. Wall Street awaits Warsh's debut

Today's session on the US market begins rather calmly. S&P 500 contracts are gaining minimally, while Nasdaq 100 contracts are pulling back slightly with the start of the cash market session. A break in the three-day growth period on Wall Street is prompting investors to shift into a waiting mode. Financial markets are holding their breath before tomorrow's key Federal Reserve meeting, the first to be chaired by Kevin Warsh. However, the attention of stock market players is entirely focused on the space mania in SpaceX shares. The major debutant of recent days is growing dynamically and is effectively throwing a direct challenge to Amazon in the battle for the status of the world's fifth-largest listed company. Additionally, the market remains in a positive mood due to the expected signing of an agreement between Iran and the USA. Although many ambiguities remain, most information reaching the market indicates that de-escalation may actually occur, although the transition period may last a very long time.

Market Situation and Key Indices

The opening of Tuesday's cash session on the New York floor brought mixed moods, reflecting the morning behavior of futures contracts. After last week's strong gains (S&P 500 gained approx. 2% since Thursday), the market is looking for a new impulse:

• US500: The broad market index began cash trading near yesterday's close, consolidating recent gains.
• US100: The technology sector is catching its breath: the index contract is losing 0.15% at the open, which is related to profit-taking after the recent June peak.
• US30: The old economy is performing best today. The blue-chip index is gaining 0.5% at the open.
• US2000: The small-cap basket also recorded a positive start, rising by 0.3%.

Although the market is positively disposed toward a potential agreement between Iran and the USA, many ambiguities remain, such as announced investments in Iran or the issue regarding toll collection in the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran reports a slow unblocking of the strait by the United States, official data does not show an increase in traffic, as suggested by Vice President J.D. Vance. Nevertheless, hopes for an agreement led to WTI oil prices falling below 77 USD per barrel today.

From a global perspective, it is worth noting the hawkish move of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which raised interest rates to 1% (the highest since 1995), while the Australian RBA kept the cost of money unchanged.

Technical Outlook on US100

Yesterday, there was a powerful rise in the tech Nasdaq 100 contracts, which is followed by holding breath today. Not only was the 30,000-point level crossed, but we are currently above 30,500 points and just 0.6% away from historical highs. If the euphoria were to continue, the market could target the 31,800 area at the 138.2 retracement of the last downtrend wave and 32,400 at the 161.8 retracement. On the other hand, if it turns out that an agreement was not reached, then the US100 could fall below 29,800 points.

Most Important Company News

• SpaceX (SPCX): The absolute engine of market sentiment. After Monday's close, SpaceX's market capitalization was 2.5 trillion USD, approaching Amazon's valuation (2.7 trillion USD). Taking into account morning gains in the pre-market (from 7.3% to 11%), SpaceX is effectively matching the e-commerce giant at the session open, aiming for the TOP 5 largest companies in the US. Currently, the company is gaining over 9%, reaching a price of 210 USD per share. Additionally, starting today, options on SpaceX shares are launching on the market. The company also announced the formalization of the acquisition of the startup Cursor (AI coding tools) for 60 billion USD.
• Amazon (AMZN): At the open, it records a modest gain (+0.5%), trying to repel the unprecedented inflow of capital into thematic Space ETFs, which is driving SpaceX's valuation.
• Qualcomm (QCOM): The share price is rising by nearly 3.7% (in pre-market even +5.6%). According to The Information, the tech giant is in advanced talks to acquire the AI startup Tenstorrent. The transaction valuation could amount to 8-10 billion USD.
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD): Shares are gaining about 1%. The company announced a plan to reduce headcount by 10% and close some open recruitment processes as part of operational cost optimization.
• Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX): Huge volatility on the company's assets. Although shares were gaining over 7% early in the morning following the publication of results from the intermediate phase of research on a heart disease drug, the opening brought a drop of over 10%, which shows investor nervousness around the biotechnology sector.
• Dynatrace (DT): The share price is rising by over 4% after UBS analysts raised their rating for the company to "Buy," setting a target price at 60 USD.