US PMIs skyrocket to a 5-year high

September PMI figures printed substantially above expectations:

• Composite PMI
  • Print: 58.4
  • Consensus: 55.3
  • Previous month: 56.0
• Services PMI
  • Print: 58.7
  • Consensus: 55.8
  • Previous month: 56.5
• Manufacturing PMI
  • Print: 57
  • Consensus: 53.7
  • Previous month: 53.9

Figure 1: US PMIs (2023 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 23.09.2026

Market reaction

The EURUSD pair continues its route downwards, dropping below the key psychological level of 1.14. The move earlier in the day has been supported by increasing bets for Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are losing ground after today’s opening.

A closer look at data

Economic activity in the US accelerated for the fourth month running and was at its fastest pace since mid-2021, with a marked acceleration in both services and manufacturing. New orders rose in both sectors, with the rate of growth in services being the highest since March 2022 and in manufacturing since April 2022.

• Exports remained a weak spot: the inflow of new export orders declined, particularly in the services sector.
• The labour market improved markedly. Firms were increasing staff numbers at the fastest rate in over four years, in an attempt to clear the growing backlog of orders.
• Backlogs – that is, outstanding production and service orders – rose at their fastest rate since May 2022, indicating rising capacity utilisation.
• Cost pressures intensified once again: input costs rose at their fastest rate in four years, mainly due to higher fuel and transport costs.
• Companies were increasingly passing on higher costs to customers, which pushed up selling prices and worsened the short-term inflation picture.
• S&P Global estimates that the pace of growth in economic activity corresponds roughly to an annualised GDP growth rate of 5%, indicating a very strong start end to the third quarter of the year.