US100 down 1.5% amid rising inflation fears and geopolitical tensions

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The Nasdaq 100 (US100) futures contract is down nearly 1.4% amid a likely escalation of the Middle East conflict, signaled yesterday by Donald Trump. Earlier, the market—guided by comments from White House officials—had been hoping that the US might withdraw from the conflict and that Tehran could potentially reach an agreement with Washington.

Iran confirmed it will respond accordingly and make the US “regret” its involvement in the war against Tehran. Rising bond yields are weighing on equity demand, while surging energy prices could push the US economy into stagflation and potentially recession if sustained. The market currently has multiple reasons for concern, including a tangible inflation risk, reflected not only in rising oil prices but also in US ISM data for both manufacturing and services (with a visible spike in the prices index).

US100 chart

US100 is trading below the EMA200, which it approached yesterday. A descending price channel is visible, with resistance around the 24,500 level. Support—based on price action methodology—is currently located near 23,800 and 23,500 (the upper wick of Monday’s candle).

Source: xStation5

Source: Fed, ISM, Macrobond, XTB Research

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