The Turkish lira has been under pressure for a long while. Monetary expansion aimed at restoring growth has backfired and capital outflows led to depleted official reserves. Fearing the worst, the central bank raised rates by 2 percentage points last week but it only paused lira decline.
Caucasus conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the new cause of concern as it may drag Turkey into another unwanted conflict. Geopolitical tensions make for the latest cause of USDTRY surge. The pair is up over 2% just this week and trades at the highest level ever.

Daily summary: Wall Street sells off, gold sells off, dollar keeps winning the risk-off (20.03.2026)
Three markets to watch next week (20.03.2026)
Chart of the Day: EURUSD Under Pressure from the Fed, the Persian Gulf, and Inflation
EURUSD gains 0.8% 📈