Wheat futures (WHEAT) are trading over 3% higher today on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The price surge is driven by growing concerns over supply due to frost in key Russian regions and drought in China. Both factors could significantly reduce this year’s global harvest. Additionally, USDA data point to deteriorating wheat crop conditions in the U.S. A weak U.S. dollar also provides a supportive backdrop for rising wheat prices.
- Analysts at IKON Commodities, cited by Reuters, noted that U.S. farmers are likely to be "selective" this year regarding selling prices, and falling futures prices have stimulated active demand.
- In recent weeks, large speculators — including hedge funds — have built up a significant short position in wheat futures. However, on Monday, spot market demand rose among these players, suggesting the possibility of at least a short-term short squeeze.
- Wheat prices have declined this year due to expectations of a strong U.S. harvest and favorable rainfall across the “Wheat Belt,” particularly in the Great Plains. Meanwhile, in Russia’s Rostov region, a state of agricultural emergency has been declared due to spring frost damaging winter wheat crops. China is also grappling with rising temperatures and drought, which the market sees as another negative signal for overall crop quality and yield levels in Asia.
According to the USDA report, the condition of U.S. winter wheat was rated
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Spring wheat was rated:
- 1% very poor, 5% poor, 55% fair, 34% good, and 5% excellent.
Spring wheat emergence reached 85%, significantly higher than 65% at the same time last year and 63% on average.
WHEAT (D1 Interval)
Wheat prices are up over 3% today — the strongest daily gain since February — and are currently testing resistance at the 50-day EMA (orange line).
Source: xStation5
