The World Bank lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.9 percentage points to 1.4% year-over-year and by 0.4 percentage points for 2026. US Dollar (USDIDX) slightly loses today, falling 0.1%.
- Published today, US NFIB data suggests improving sentiment among small U.S. business owners (May reading 98.8 vs. 96 and 95.5 previously). The reading may suggest that the US economy is still strong.
- Sales at large U.S. department stores rose 4.7% year-over-year in May, according to Redbook data; April’s reading was 4.9% year-over-year.
- An economist survey implies GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026; over 60% expect at least two rate cuts this year; 59 out of 105 economists indicate the Fed will begin cuts in September.
