Novo Nordisk: How a Diabetes Drug, Ozempic, Became a Social Media Weight Loss Sensation

Update as of July 29, 2025:

Novo Nordisk shares have plunged in recent weeks, shedding as much as 30% in a single session and erasing nearly $90 billion in market value. Lets take a look at what caused the drop. 

Why the Stock Dropped Sharply

1. Guidance miss

Despite robust first‑half results, Novo’s significantly lowered guidance alarmed investors particularly as it marked the second cut in months raising concerns about momentum heading into late 2025.

2. Slowing U.S. GLP‑1 sales

Novo cited weaker-than-expected growth momentum for Wegovy (obesity) and Ozempic (diabetes) in the U.S. market. This was attributed to increased competition from compounding pharmacies (“knockoff” semaglutide), slower market expansion, and competition from rival GLP‑1 therapies, notably from Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound.

3. International underperformance

In select international obesity markets, Wegovy penetration lagged internal expectations further constraining growth outlook outside the U.S.

4. Market cap losses

The combined effect of weaker guidance and growing competitive pressure led to a dramatic sell‑off: U.S.-listed shares fell about 20-21%, with intraday drops reaching 30%, wiping out up to $90-$93 billion of market value in Copenhagen and New York markets alone.

5. Timing & Timing of CEO news

On the same day as the forecast cut, Novo announced the appointment of Maziar Mike Doustdar as new CEO, effective August 7 adding investor uncertainty during an already turbulent update.

Q2 & H1 Financial Highlights - FY 2025

Novo Nordisk reported strong growth in the first half of 2025:

• Sales rose 18% year‑over‑year (constant exchange rate, CER) in both Q2 and H1.
• Operating profit (EBIT) increased by 40% in Q2 and 29% in H1 (CER)
• Diluted EPS: DKK 5.96 for Q2 (slightly below Bloomberg estimates of ~6.03), and DKK 12.49 for H1 

Revised Fin‑Year 2025 Outlook 

Novo Nordisk has issued its second downward revision for FY 2025:

• Sales growth (CER) cut to 8% - 14% (vs prior guidance of 13%-21%).
• Operating profit growth revised to 10% - 16% (previously 16%-24%).
• Depreciating USD/DKK is expected to reduce reported growth by 4-7 percentage points compared to CER .

What Should Investors Look Out for? 

For investors trying to assess whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning sign, several key factors warrant close attention in the months ahead.

1. The Full Q2 2025 Earnings Report on August 6, 2025

Novo’s preliminary earnings highlighted 18% sales growth (constant exchange rate) and a 40% surge in Q2 operating profit, but investors need more clarity. The detailed report will provide a deeper look at revenue drivers by region and product line, particularly:

• U.S. GLP‑1 sales trends, where Wegovy and Ozempic have shown softer momentum.
• The financial toll of growing competition from Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound.
• Profit margins, including whether Novo is increasing promotional spending or discounting to defend share.

2. Wegovy Uptake Beyond the U.S.

International growth has lagged Novo’s expectations, dampening the company’s bullish projections for obesity drug sales. Investors should monitor:

• Launch progress and adoption rates in Europe and Asia, particularly in Germany, the UK, and Japan.
• The resolution of manufacturing and supply chain bottlenecks, which previously constrained sales.
• Reimbursement policies and government approvals, critical to unlocking broader patient access outside the U.S.

3. Rising GLP‑1 Competition

The obesity and diabetes markets remain lucrative, but increasingly crowded. Eli Lilly is aggressively capturing share, and new therapies are in the pipeline from multiple players. Key questions for Novo:

• Can it defend or grow its market share despite rival launches?
• Will next-generation GLP‑1s such as oral versions or higher-dose formulations help the company maintain leadership?
• How will pricing evolve as competition intensifies?

4. Regulatory and Legal Backdrop

The rise of compounding pharmacies selling unauthorised semaglutide has been a drag on Novo’s U.S. growth. FDA enforcement or lack thereof could meaningfully affect sales trends. A crackdown could help restore Novo’s pricing power, while continued inaction may deepen revenue erosion.

5. Currency and Macro Factors

The company expects the USD/DKK exchange rate to reduce reported growth by 4-7 percentage points versus constant exchange rate figures. Investors should consider how much of this can be mitigated by hedging strategies or price adjustments in overseas markets.

6. Leadership Transition

On August 7, Maziar Mike Doustdar will step in as Novo Nordisk’s new CEO. His first moves will be closely scrutinised. Any revisions to guidance, strategic pivots on pricing, or bold moves in the GLP‑1 pipeline could either restore confidence or compound uncertainty.

7. Potential Catalysts for Recovery

For the stock to rebound, Novo needs to demonstrate that its growth story remains intact. This could come from:

• Stabilisation of U.S. Wegovy and Ozempic sales.
• Accelerated international adoption with favourable reimbursement decisions.
• Positive data on next-generation GLP‑1 or obesity therapies, particularly oral candidates that could widen patient access.

Bottom Line

Novo Nordisk remains a dominant player in a transformative therapeutic category, but the recent sell-off underscores that even market leaders can falter when momentum slows and competition intensifies. The next few quarters anchored by the full Q2 report, international rollout progress, and the incoming CEO’s strategy will determine whether this is a temporary stumble or a longer-term reset for the company’s growth trajectory.

What is Ozempic? 

Ozempic is a brand name for the drug semaglutide, which is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist. A GLP-1 receptor agonist, is a type of medication that helps the body regulate blood sugar levels. It is a prescription medication used to treat type 2 diabetes in adults. It is also approved to reduce the risk of major cardiovascular events such as heart attack, stroke, or death in adults with type 2 diabetes and known heart disease.

How does Ozempic work and what are the risks?

Ozempic works by mimicking the effects of GLP-1, which is a natural hormone that helps the body regulate blood sugar levels. GLP-1 works in a number of ways, such as stimulating the release of insulin from the pancreas, suppressing the release of glucagon from the pancreas and slowing down the emptying of the stomach. 

Although recently Ozempic has come to light for its weight loss purposes, ozempic is not a weight loss medication. The drug reduces your appetite so you eat less, slowing down the movement of food in your gut meaning you stay full for longer.

Many celebrities have openly spoken about taking Ozempic, with some also highlighting the severe side effects the medication can cause. In a recent interview Hollywood actor Stepher Fry said: “The first week or so, I was thinking, ‘This is astonishing. Not only do I not want to eat, I don’t want any alcohol of any kind. This is going to be brilliant,’ however he explained he was forced to come off the drug due to the fact it made him feel “sicker and sicker”. 

He continued by saying:“I was literally throwing up four, five times a day and I thought, ‘I can’t do this.’”

In the same way many people have spoken out about similar side effects and according to the FDA, in rare cases, some people have suffered from gastroparesis, or paralysed stomach, after taking the popular weight loss drug. People should also note that those who discontinue taking the medication may regain the weight lost. 

Understanding potential side effects is key! Always read the full list and talk to your doctor before taking any medication.

How did Ozempic get popular?

So how did Ozempic take the internet by storm? Social media is flooded with dramatic weight loss transformations linked to the use of Ozempic. The medication has become a major talking point in Hollywood, with celebrities like Oprah Winfrey, Amy Schumer, Sharon Osbourne, and Elon Musk all going public about their use of the medication.

Ozempic weight loss experiences are also trending on social media, with hashtags like #ozempic and #ozempicweightloss exploding in popularity. This online buzz has led to a surge in interest, with Google searches for 'Ozempic' in the US, rising up by a staggering 436% over the past five years.

Some national health associations have recently linked the Ozempic shortage to a surge in demand. In response, they advised pharmacists to restrict dispensing, prioritising patients with diabetes. There are concerns for diabetics who rely on Ozempic, highlighting the anxiety this shortage creates for those who need it for managing their condition. 

Many doctors have emphasised the fact that these drugs were not designed for normal-weight people who want to get down to be super thin as the drug has not been systematically tested in people with lower body weights. 

What is Wegovy?

Wegovy, in a similar way as Ozempic, is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist delivered via a prefilled pen, and is a prescription medication used for weight management in certain individuals. It should be noted that Ozempic has a smaller dose of semaglutide than Wegovy.

Novo Nordisk's Wegovy saw explosive sales growth in the U.S. in 2023, surging a staggering 393%.This momentum is expected to continue following the FDA's recent approval for an expanded use of Wegovy. The drug, previously indicated for weight loss, can now also be prescribed to patients with cardiovascular disease, significantly increasing Novo Nordisk's target patient pool. This broader application opens Wegovy to a wider range of individuals at risk of heart attacks or strokes.

Both Ozempic and Wegovy are weekly injectable medications for the stomach, thigh, or arm.

Novo Nordisk's stock saw new highs following unveiling promising data for Amycretin, a potential new obesity drug. Early trials suggest it could be even more effective than their current blockbuster treatment, Wegovy.

The early trials showcased that Amycretin could lead to an average weight loss of 13% after 12 weeks, compared to just 6% with Wegovy in a similar study. This significant difference fueled investor excitement, pushing shares up by as much as 7.5%.

What is Rybelsus? 

Rybelsus is a prescription medication by Novo Nordisk used to improve blood sugar control in adults with type 2 diabetes. In the same way as the two drugs above, it works by mimicking a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1). GLP-1 helps regulate blood sugar levels in several ways. It essentially increases insulin production when blood sugar is high and reduces glucagon release, which helps keep blood sugar levels in check. Studies have shown that Rybelsus may also help lower the risk of major cardiovascular events like heart attack, stroke, or cardiovascular death in some patients with type 2 diabetes and existing heart disease.

Rybelsus is taken by mouth as a tablet, once daily eliminating the need for injections. It is recommended Rybelsus is used alongside diet and exercise to improve blood sugar control in adults with type 2 diabetes.

Both Rybelsus and Ozempic are FDA-approved to help manage blood sugar in adults. 

Novo Nordisk History

Novo Nordisk's history is rooted in the fight against diabetes, dating back to the 1920s in Denmark. Here's a breakdown of some key milestones:

• Early 1920s: Two separate Danish companies emerge – Nordisk Insulinlaboratorium and Novo Terapeutisk Laboratorium – focusing on producing insulin, a revolutionary new treatment for diabetes discovered by Canadian researchers.
• 1923: Nordisk Insulinlaboratorium is founded by August Krogh, a Nobel Prize-winning physiologist, along with a physician and a pharmacist. Their goal was to make insulin readily available in Scandinavia.
• 1926: Nordisk establishes the Nordisk Insulin Foundation to support diabetes research and patient care.
• 1932: The Steno Memorial Hospital, dedicated to diabetes treatment and research, is founded by Nordisk.
• 1946: Nordisk develops a longer-acting insulin formulation called neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH).
• 1951: Novo Terapeutisk Laboratorium establishes its own foundation, the Novo Foundation.
• 1982: Novo Nordisk establishes a presence in the United States.
• 1989: A merger between Nordisk Gentofte A/S (Nordisk Insulinlaboratorium) and Novo Industri A/S (Novo Terapeutisk Laboratorium) creates Novo Nordisk A/S, solidifying its position as the world's leading insulin producer. The Novo Nordisk Foundation is also formed by merging the two previous foundations.

Since then Novo Nordisk has expanded its focus beyond diabetes, developing treatments for obesity, haemophilia, growth hormone deficiencies, and rare endocrine disorders. They've also become a global leader with a presence in over 170 countries. They remain committed to scientific advancements, expanding access to medications, and preventing and ultimately curing the diseases they fight.

Obesity levels in the world and the weight loss medication frenzy 

The prevalence of adult obesity is on the rise in the United States. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 22 states had obesity rates of 35% or higher in 2022, a significant increase from 19 states in 2021. Notably, just ten years ago, no state had such a high prevalence.

In England, according to the Obesity Profile: short statistical commentary May 2023 data from the 2021-2022 period shows a concerning trend: nearly 26% (25.9%) of English adults over 18 are classified as obese. This represents a slight increase from the previous year (25.2%). While obesity rates are similar between men (25.8%) and women (26.1%), there's a significant variation by age. Adults aged 45-74 have a higher prevalence of obesity compared to the national average.

These findings highlight the growing challenge of obesity in England and underscore the need for effective public health interventions to promote healthy lifestyles.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) worldwide, a staggering 2.5 billion adults (18+) were overweight in 2022, with over 890 million classified as obese. This translates to nearly half (43%) of adults being overweight, a significant rise from 25% in 1990. The prevalence of obesity itself has more than doubled in that timeframe, affecting roughly 16% of adults globally in 2022.

The picture is equally concerning for younger generations. Over 390 million children and adolescents (aged 5-19) were overweight in 2022, a dramatic increase from just 8% in 1990 (20% in 2022). This rise affects both boys and girls, with 19% and 21% prevalence of overweight (including obesity) respectively in 2022.

This data paints a clear picture: overweight and obesity are major public health issues with a growing global impact. Effective interventions are crucial to address this concerning trend and promote healthier lifestyles for all age groups.

People should note that being overweight is a condition of excessive fat deposits whereas obesity is a chronic complex disease defined by excessive fat deposits that can impair health. 

Obesity is linked to a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers. Excess weight can strain your joints and bones, leading to pain and difficulty with movement. Obesity can also affect fertility and pregnancy outcomes for both men and women.

The primary tool for diagnosing overweight and obesity is BMI. It's calculated using weight and height and provides a general indicator of body fat. While BMI is a helpful starting point, waist circumference can provide additional insights. Excess fat around the waist is linked to a higher risk of health problems. BMI categories for defining overweight and obesity vary depending on age and gender, particularly for infants, children, and adolescents.

What causes obesity?

While weight gain often stems from an imbalance between calories consumed and burned, obesity is a more intricate issue. In most cases, it's a multifactorial disease, meaning several factors contribute to its development. 

Our surroundings can significantly influence obesity risk. Limited access to healthy and affordable food, lack of safe spaces for physical activity, and weak regulations promoting healthy choices all contribute to an obesogenic environment.

Certain behaviours like dietary choices and physical activity levels significantly impact weight management.

In some cases, specific genes can increase susceptibility to obesity. However, for most people, genetic predisposition interacts with other factors. Certain medications, underlying diseases, and even some medical procedures can contribute to weight gain.

In addition to the above, a single major factor may be the culprit, such as medication side effects or a genetic condition.

These factors often work together to create a "perfect storm" that promotes obesity. For example, a person with a genetic predisposition to obesity living in an environment with limited healthy food options and few opportunities for exercise is at a higher risk.

The healthcare system also plays a role. If weight gain isn't identified and addressed early on, it can be harder to manage later.

What can be done to prevent obesity?

Policies aimed at promoting healthy eating habits in schools, workplaces, and communities can play a significant role in preventing obesity. This can include regulations on food labelling, availability of healthy options, and restrictions on marketing unhealthy foods to children.

Public health campaigns can raise awareness about the dangers of obesity and promote healthy lifestyle choices.

For years, the World Health Organization (WHO) has prioritised tackling the global obesity crisis.

WHO member states endorsed the Global Nutrition Targets, aiming to stop childhood overweight from rising, and the NCD target to halt the increase of diabetes and obesity by 2025. These targets acknowledge the complex issue of "double burden of malnutrition," where both undernutrition and overnutrition coexist.

In 2022, at the 75th World Health Assembly, member states took a significant step. They adopted new recommendations for preventing and managing obesity and endorsed the WHO Acceleration Plan to STOP Obesity.

This plan has had a major impact. It has:

• Shaped the political landscape to encourage lasting change.
• Provided a platform to refine, streamline, and prioritise policies.
• Supported implementation efforts in individual countries.
• Driven measurable progress and strengthened accountability on both national and global levels.

Final thoughts

Novo Nordisk's investment in semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, has paid off handsomely. Ozempic is a key driver of the company's revenue, and with ongoing trials, it's likely to remain a major product for years to come. The drug represents a significant innovation in diabetes treatment. While it demonstrates promise in various areas, it is vital to note that Ozempic may cause side effects, and patients should consult with their doctor to determine if it's the right medication.