Bitcoin gains 3.20% 📌

Will an ETF on BTC be approved in the next 2 weeks? 🔎

Bitcoin breaks through resistance at $36000 level. The major cryptocurrency is gaining 3.00% today to the $36700 level. The surge is driven by the potential approval of ETF filings by the SEC in the coming two weeks. Along with BTC, Ethereum and the rest of the smaller crypto projects are also gaining. However, as with historical cycles, the initial spikes are mostly consumed by the largest cryptocurrency. Nonetheless, both Ethereum and altcoins are close to setting new highs this year, and the calming of the increases on BTC could be a catalyst for more capital flow to smaller projects.

Speculation surrounding ETFs

Bitcoin is already up more than 36% since mid-October. The positive sentiment is supported by speculation about the upcoming approval of ETF applications for Bitcoin by the SEC and the halving of Bitcoin, which is expected to take place as early as early April 2024. The gains over the past two weeks are no coincidence, as investors speculate that the acceptance of ETFs will occur by November 17. Details of the current process:

• Following the funds' recent update of their applications, which included significant asset management issues, the SEC has set a consultation and comment collection period until November 8, so yesterday. 
• The mere fact that comments were collected and applications updated demonstrates the willingness of the SEC and the funds to work together and bring the entire process to a meaningful conclusion. Proceedings have materially accelerated after a string of lost SEC cases for Grayscale and XRP.
• Speculation about ETF approval until November 17 finds its basis in what the current status of all ETF applications looks like. Once a decision is made to delay the applications, the SEC sets specific next dates for a decision. Following Grayscale's court victory, there is now a first window for simultaneous acceptance of all ETFs, and that window is expected to last until November 17 when the first deadline for applications from Hashdex and Franklin ETFs expires. After that date, the window for simultaneous approval of all 12 applicants will close, although the SEC can still decide on each of them individually until January 10, 2024. 

Approval vs. actual launch of ETFs

However, even if the ETF applications (19b-4) are approved, it could be several months before the ETFs are actually launched. To do so, the SEC must still approve separately the S-1 applications, which are still under review and there is no real deadline for this process. Although it will be more of a formality at this stage. An S-1 application is a registration form for new securities required by the SEC. In such a scenario, the date for the real launch of ETTs moves to February-March 2024 anyway.

Valkyrie estimates date for approval of its application

In contrast, Steven McClurg, CIO of Valkyrie expects approval of its ETF application in late November. Valkyrie expects another round of comments after it filed an update to its application last week. Meanwhile, the physical launch of the ETF could take place in February, arguing that the agency may wait until the new year to ask for the final touches to its S-1 filings. Interestingly, Valkyrie anticipates $10 billion in demand soon after the ETF's launch.

Bitcoin has been moving in a strong uptrend since around mid-October. Today, the price broke through an important resistance zone at $36,000 while breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $35,750. If the uptrend is maintained then bulls will have to face a consolidation zone in the area of  $37,500-$40,000 from the last cycle in 2021. Source: xStation 5