BREAKING: ECB holds rates as expected; EURUSD ticks higher in first reaction💡

Key takeaways

ECB rates unchanged
Inflation forecasts raised for 2026
Economic growth forecasts raised for the next two years
The euro recovers losses in initial reaction

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Key takeaways

ECB rates unchanged
Inflation forecasts raised for 2026
Economic growth forecasts raised for the next two years
The euro recovers losses in initial reaction

Euro Zone - ECB Interest Rate Decision for December:

Actual: 2.15%; forecast 2.15%; previous 2.15%;
Marginal Lending Facility At 2.40%

Key information added to the official ECB publication:

Inflation for 2025 left at 2.1%
Inflation for 2026 raised to 1.9% from 1.7%
Inflation for 2027 at 1.8%, compared to the previous forecast of 1.9%
Inflation at 2% for 2028
Core inflation for 2026 raised to 2.2% from 1.9%
Core inflation for 2027 raised to 1.9% from 1.8%
Core inflation for 2028 at 2.0%
Economic growth in 2025 is expected to reach 1.4%, compared to the previous forecast of 1.2%.
Growth in 2026 at 1.2% compared to 1.0% previously
Growth in 2027 at 1.4% compared to 1.3% previously
Growth in 2028 at 1.4%

ECB does clearly not intend to cut more. Very hawkish revisions to forecast. Divergence to Fed is at extremes currently and that's why EURUSD is doing very well against USD. Traders keep ECB rate bets steady hovewer, see 3 BPS of hikes in 2026. Now we are waiting for ECB conference which will be conducted by President Lagarde. Link here: ECB Governing Council Press Conference - 18 December 2025

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