The EUR/USD pair is currently trading around 1.15375 USD per euro. Today’s movements are shaped by a combination of fundamental factors, with weaker German data competing with rising market expectations for a Fed rate cut. Market attention is focused on today’s US PPI data, which could determine the next moves for the EUR/USD pair.
Source: xStation5
What is shaping the EUR/USD today?
German GDP and business sentiment
The latest third-quarter data show that German GDP recorded no growth quarter-on-quarter, indicating a virtual stagnation of the economy. Additionally, weak results from the German Ifo business sentiment index reflect deteriorating expectations, despite a slight improvement in the current economic situation. As Germany is the largest economy in the euro area, weak data and declining business sentiment reduce the euro’s appeal to markets. Slower economic momentum, combined with a delayed fiscal stimulus in the euro area expected only in 2026, lowers expectations for further expansionary measures by the European Central Bank.
Fed expectations and today’s PPI data
Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December, with the probability estimated at around 75–80%. Fed officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, emphasize that the current policy remains moderately restrictive, and the US economy, particularly the labor market, may require further easing. In addition, markets are awaiting today’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which could strengthen or weaken expectations regarding Fed policy. The prospect of a rate cut weakens the dollar against the euro, providing an upward impulse for EUR/USD even when euro fundamentals remain relatively weak.
Situation in Ukraine
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are creating a certain positive sentiment in markets, although the impact on euro exchange rates remains limited for now. Geopolitical optimism, however, could support the common currency in the medium term.
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Morning wrap (25.11.2025)
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