Oil prices remain stable today at $64.80 per barrel of Brent crude, despite a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in December. The decision was made during Sunday’s meeting.
OPEC+ also announced plans to pause production hikes in Q1 2026, which helped balance the market’s reaction. The decision reflects growing concerns about a potential oil oversupply at the beginning of next year. U.S. sanctions on Russian producers have introduced supply uncertainty from Russia, a key OPEC+ member. Although geopolitical factors — such as a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Tuapse port — have increased volatility, the market remains focused mainly on oversupply risks and weaker industrial activity in Asia.
Following the OPEC+ decision, Morgan Stanley raised its Brent forecast to $60 per barrel for early 2026 (from $57.50), citing reduced concerns over excess supply. Meanwhile, UBS maintained its forecast range of $60–70 per barrel, with a year-end target of $62. Analysts expect the market to remain under pressure in 2026 due to record-high U.S. oil output (13.8 million barrels per day) and weak demand in Asia.
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