Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) are up nearly 0.5% today, leading gains among the major U.S. equity benchmarks. This week, the DJIA has outperformed not only the main indices but also the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. The index has climbed to record highs above 45,300 points, and volatility may increase today between 12 PM GMT and 2 PM GMT due to a busy macroeconomic calendar. At 12:30 GMT, U.S. retail sales data will be released, followed by industrial production figures at 1:15 PM GMT and at 2 PM GMT, the University of Michigan’s preliminary readings on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
- Yesterday’s PPI data, on the one hand, cast doubt on the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate cut, but on the other, appear to support the narrative of a still-strong U.S. economy. The DJIA, in particular, has the most “direct” exposure to the domestic market (with less reliance on exports and high-tech sectors).
- Price increases—if accompanied by solid consumption and controlled inflation around 3% annually—could indicate that consumers are willing to absorb higher costs. Such a scenario would be positive for the Dow Jones and the broader market, provided inflation remains in check.
In today’s U.S. data, investors will likely look for confirmation of the economy’s strength (via retail sales and industrial production), while the biggest short-term risk for equities appears to be a potential jump in the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations (2 PM GMT). Such an outcome could trigger profit-taking and a “risk-off” move after recent strong gains on Wall Street. Conversely, if expectations meet or fall below forecasts, indices could continue to climb in anticipation of the Trump–Putin meeting outcome.
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For the past four sessions, buying volume has dominated on the US30, with the first notable support seen around 44,300 points (50-day EMA). Today, the index hits ATH.
Source: xStation5
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