Chart of the day - USDIDX (30.06.2025)

• The U.S. dollar is hovering near multi-year lows, testing key support levels around 97.0000
• Weak data on personal income and consumer spending, along with the expiration of the tariff pause, are deepening the pressure.
• Investors are awaiting labor market data, Fed commentary, trade and debt developments as potential directional drivers.
• Trump’s proposed bill (OBBBA) could increase the deficit by $3–4 trillion, which would likely push up bond yields and the dollar.

The dollar ended last week under pressure, falling to lows not seen since February 2022, after weaker income and spending data from Americans undermined confidence in the U.S. consumer’s condition. The DXY index is now testing technical support in the 97.0–96.0 range; a breakdown could trigger further declines, while defending this level might spark a short-term rebound.

Investors are closely watching upcoming macroeconomic data (labor market, Fed commentary, trade negotiations) and the approaching vote on the tax bill. Potentially hawkish signals from the Fed could support the dollar. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate is working on Trump’s broad bill – the “One Big Beautiful Bill” – which expands the 2017 tax reform, changes rules on overtime and tips, and limits social programs, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3–4 trillion over a decade, according to analysis. Donald Trump is pressing the Senate to pass the bill by July 4th.

The dollar is at a strategic juncture. If it fails to hold technical support, deeper declines may follow. On the other hand, a growing fiscal deficit, trade tensions, or strong U.S. data could prompt a local rebound.