COFFEE futures drop 2% today, diving below the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA100; dark purple), as production forecasts in Brazil and regulatory context in the EU further ease supply concerns.
Market relief came from the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) postponement and the block’s commitment to a targeted review, as the proposition of the law risked disturbing food & beverages supply chains, potentially leading to price increases.
Additional selling pressure came from Brazil’s Conab agency, which raised its 2025/26 output forecast to 56.5 million bags (+4.3% YoY), third largest ever. Worth noting that data diverges with USDA projecting 63 million bags, with Arabica down 13.6% to 38 million and Robusta up 19% to a record 25 million. Nevertheless, favourable weather conditions help support hopes for supply recovery.
Source: xStation5
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