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The PCE Core inflation came in slightly lower than before and below expectations at 4.6% YoY (expected 4.7% YoY), leading to further weakness in the dollar. EURUSD rose close to the 1.10 level, although the largest moves against the US dollar were seen in recently oversold currencies such as NZD and SEK.
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Movements in EURUSD allowed for a return to declines in USDPLN, which tested the 4.06 level after previously testing around 4.10. CPI inflation in Poland for June dropped to 11.5% from 13%. On a monthly basis, we see a maintenance of zero growth. However, it's worth noting that last year we had record fuel prices, hence the significant drop in inflation dynamics.
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Sentiment in the USA is quite good. The final UoM index came in higher than the preliminary reading, allowing for the continuation of strong gains on Wall Street. The S&P 500 rose by as much as 1.0%, while the Nasdaq gained as much as 1.5%.
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The Nasdaq Composite is likely to finish the first half of the year as the best-performing in history, with an increase of approximately 30%. This is primarily due to the demand for AI companies.
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Apple today surpassed a market capitalization of 3 trillion, contributing to gains on the Nasdaq. Citi suggests that there may still be a 30% potential upside for Apple.
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Dollar weakness has led to a rebound in commodity prices. Gold tested the $1920 level and yesterday fell below $1900.
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Oil has had a very weak first half of the year and even worse 12 months. Seasonality does not provide much chance for a significant oil recovery, but on the other hand, Saudi Arabia will cut 1 million barrels per day of production in July.
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Bitcoin was considering continuing its upward movement and breaking permanently above $31,000 today. However, there was news from the SEC that the recent applications for Bitcoin ETF creation were insufficient and incomplete.
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