Daily Summary: more optimism driven by progress in negotiations with Japan and the EU 🔎📈

Indices on the U.S. stock market rebound slightly at the end of the session. Gains are driven by hopes for the first effects of bilateral talks between partners and the USA.

At the time of publication, US500 futures gain 0.80% to 5340 points, US100 gains 0.32% to 18400 points, and US2000 gains 0.95% to 1888 points. Indices in Europe also end the session higher, recording gains of 1.00-2.00%.

The USDIDX dollar index gains 0.30% to 99.3000 points. Meanwhile, currencies that recently attracted capital as safe havens—JPY and CHF—are losing value. These are the two weakest currencies today, which may indicate a slight sense of relief in the market.

Trump expressed confidence that a trade deal with the EU can be reached and noted that talks are going well. According to the President, the first results of the negotiations may be announced soon.

At the White House, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed confidence that a U.S.-EU agreement can be reached and suggested organizing a meeting with EU leaders in Italy to give the talks more momentum.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent revealed in a post on X.com that negotiations with Japan are heading in a very satisfactory direction. If the current trajectory continues, White House officials expect to announce a trade deal with Japan soon.

The European Central Bank cuts interest rates by 25bp, in line with expectations. The ECB statement omits mention of restrictive interest rates. According to the ECB, the disinflation process is proceeding as planned.

During the press conference, President Lagarde acknowledged that disinflation is progressing, but the economy still faces significant uncertainty and stagnation risk. Lagarde did not hide her dissatisfaction with Trump's current trade policy and emphasized that a zero-for-zero tariffs offer is the most obvious proposal from the EU.

The market now expects the ECB to ease policy, with a high probability of a rate cut already in June.

A federal judge ruled that Google illegally maintained a monopolistic position in the online advertising market, delivering a second major legal blow to the tech giant in less than a year. Alphabet shares fell as much as 1.8% after the ruling was announced and are currently down 0.80%.

Netflix will release its Q1 2025 earnings report today after the session closes. Netflix shares (NFLX.US) are gaining 2.60%. The market expects revenues of USD 10.5 billion vs. USD 9.37 billion a year ago and USD 10.42 billion in Netflix’s forecast. Earnings per share are expected at USD 5.68 vs. USD 5.28 a year ago and USD 5.58 in Netflix’s forecast.

Eli Lilly announced results for its experimental weight loss pill named orforglipron, which showed effectiveness comparable to injection therapy in a recent clinical trial. Eli Lilly shares (LLY.US) are gaining 16.50% today.

Gold and other precious metals are losing after the recent upward wave. A surge in market uncertainty drew record capital into the gold market, which rose to over USD 3355 per ounce. Today, gold is down 0.70% to USD 3318.

Bitcoin is gaining 1.20% to USD 85000, with slightly larger gains seen in Ethereum, now at USD 1610. Unlike the stock market, cryptocurrencies have not experienced such a deep sell-off in recent weeks.