- US indices decline today, partially erasing yesterday's gains. Market volatility remains very high, and investors are still fearful of a recession. The S&P 500 is down -5.2% today, the Dow Jones is losing -3.8%, and the Nasdaq 100 is down -5.1%, approaching the 18,000 point level.
- On the broad US market, we see a far-reaching sell-off. Only 5% of companies from the main index are recording gains today.
- Trump continues the narrative pointing to the continuation of the trade war with China. Today, the tariff rate on China officially increased to 145%, thus combining the so-called "fentanyl tariffs" of 20% with the announced reciprocal tariffs of 125%.
- Big Techs are partially erasing yesterday's gains. Among the "Magnificent Seven", Tesla is doing the worst with a drop of over 9%, Nvidia is losing about 7% today, and Apple is down over 5%. For the company, China remains a key country in terms of supplying its products, hence the trade war could severely affect the company's future results.
- US Steel is down about 7% today after Trump expressed his opposition to the company being taken over by Japanese Nippon Steel. The potential takeover was to provide the company with key financing to implement planned investments.
- CarMax, like Delta Air Lines yesterday, is withdrawing from previous financial targets due to ongoing uncertainty related to the impact of tariff policy on the US economy. These moves may intensify with the start of the US corporate earnings season. The company's shares are down nearly 16% today.
- Republicans in the House of Representatives narrowly passed President Trump's budget proposal on Thursday by a vote of 216-214, a significant victory for his legislative agenda. The vote opens a fast legislative track for a bill that will extend expiring tax cuts, introduce additional tax cuts, and increase funding for border security and defense spending.
- European markets recorded gains today in response to Donald Trump's yesterday suspension of tariffs for 90 days . The DAX rose by over 4.5% today, the CAC40 grew by 3.8%, the FTSE 100 gained 3%, the SMI ended the session with a 3.3% plus, and the broad STOXX Europe 600 index gained 3.7%.
- The debt market is slightly stabilizing. Yields on 10-year US bonds rose slightly today to 4.34%, German 10-year bonds are stabilizing around 2.58%. However, a clear sell-off movement was recorded by Japanese 10-year bonds, which yields rose to 1.35% (+6.23%).
- CPI inflation in the United States in March was lower than expected. In y/y terms, prices rose by 2.4%, compared to the expected level of 2.5%. The core inflation rate was 2.8%, compared to a forecast of 3%.
- Initial jobless claims were as expected at 223,000, which means 4,000 more than last week.
- In the forex market, we see a weakening of the US dollar, which is losing -1.9% against a currency basket. EURUSD rose above 1.12 today, gaining 2.3%. Apart from the euro, the strongest currencies from the G10 today were the Swiss franc (+3.7%) and the Japanese yen (+2.1%).
- The VIX index returned to around 37 points today, which means a nearly 31% increase, after a strong drop yesterday. Uncertainty in the stock market due to turmoil around tariffs remains.
- Apart from currencies, the increase in uncertainty is also driving gold prices, which are gaining over 2.5% today, returning above $3150/ounce. Other precious metals are having a much calmer session. Silver and palladium are losing about 0.2%, and platinum is up 0.8%.
- The price of oil is erasing some of yesterday's gains. OIL.WTI is returning to around $60 (-4.2%), and OIL is recording a -3.7% drop to around $63.
- Stronger movements can be seen in NATGAS contracts, which are down nearly 6% today. The US inventory change reading turned out to be higher than expected and amounted to 57 bcf (compared to an expected 49 bcf).
- In the crypto market, there is a strong pullback after yesterday's gains, Bitcoin is falling below $80,000 (-4.5%), and Ethereum is retreating by almost 10% today.
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