The uncertainty driving EURUSD gains (+0.25%) is further intensified by inconsistent messaging from the U.S. administration.
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick emphasized on Sunday that the tariffs will unconditionally take effect on August 1. On the other hand, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, when asked about the deadline, responded that “the quality of trade deals is more important, not timing.” While Lutnick does not rule out further negotiations after the tariffs are implemented, Bessent’s comments somewhat undermine the firmness of the current deadline.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appOn the EU side, there is still a prevailing willingness to reach a deal, but Trump’s hardline rhetoric and plans to impose tariffs of 15–30% are driving discussions around new retaliatory measures. The initial round of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, worth a total of €21 billion, has been frozen until August 6, and the European Commission is reportedly preparing a second package worth an additional €72 billion. Moreover, the introduction of the so-called Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) would allow the European Commission to impose unilateral tariffs without prior approval from member states.
The ambiguity surrounding the final negotiation deadline and the risk of a full-scale trade war have reintroduced a high level of uncertainty — a key factor behind EURUSD’s recent gains. According to data from the European Council, trade between the EU and the U.S. reached €1.68 trillion in 2024, the highest among all bilateral relationships. A full-scale trade war would therefore quickly impact sentiment and consumer purchasing power.
EURUSD extentended gains by a bullish 0.1% during the Scott Bessent's interview. Source: xStation5
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.
