Market Wrap: Axios reports drive European markets; Novo Nordisk the star of the day❓🚀

European stock indices have opened Wednesday’s session firmly in positive territory — the Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50) futures contract is up by around 2.74%, whilst the German DAX (DE40) is rising by 2.51%, reflecting a global improvement in investor sentiment. The main catalyst for the gains is progress in peace talks between the US and Iran — according to reports by Axios, Washington is close to signing a one-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would provide for a moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment, the gradual lifting of sanctions and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The prospect of a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is having a direct impact on oil prices — both Brent (OIL) and WTI (OIL.WTI) are down by over 9–10% and are trading at $100.47 and $92.25 per barrel respectively. The US dollar is clearly losing value — the USDIDX index is down 0.67% to 97.70, whilst the EUR/USD pair is up 0.64% and trading above 1.1767, indicating a rotation of capital away from safe-haven assets. At sector level in the Euro Stoxx 50, Industrials (Safran +4.30%, Airbus +2.59%, Siemens Energy +2.32%) and Financials (UniCredit +2.82%, ING +2.97%, BNP Paribas +2.61%) are leading the way, whilst Energy is the weakest performer — ENI is down 2.44% and TotalEnergies 1.12%. The technology sector is performing mixed — ASML is up 1.90%, but Infineon is down 2.02%, whilst in Consumer Staples, AB InBev is down 3.58% and Wolters Kluwer is one of the day’s biggest losers (-7.55%).

A table showing the best and worst performers during today’s trading session in Europe. Source: XTB HQ Research Department

Sector performance Source: XTB HQ Research Department

Company Information

• Novo Nordisk is undoubtedly the star of the day. Shares are surging by as much as 9.2% following its Q1 2026 results, which significantly exceeded expectations: reported revenue stood at DKK 96.82 billion (vs. an estimate of DKK 69.38 billion), EBIT reached DKK 59.62 billion against a consensus of just DKK 29 billion, and the gross margin stood at 85.9% vs. the expected 81.3%. The key driver was Wegovy, both the injectable version (sales of DKK 18.24 billion), and the groundbreaking tablet version (DKK 2.26 billion in the first quarter since its launch in January), which, according to CEO Mike Doustdar, is “the strongest-ever launch of a GLP-1 product in the US” and has already exceeded 200,000 weekly prescriptions. The company has raised its forecast for 2026 and now expects adjusted revenue to change by between -4% and -12% at constant exchange rates (previously: -5% to -13%), which analysts at Morgan Stanley view as still conservative assumptions suggesting a result in the upper half of the range.

• BMW shares are rising by as much as 6%, as the Q1 2026 results  despite a slight miss on revenue (EUR 31.0 billion vs. est. EUR 32.2 billion) surprised positively on key metrics: the EBIT margin in the Automotive segment stood at 5.0% (above the estimate of 4.7%), and cash flow was well above expectations. JPMorgan and Bernstein emphasise that the result includes a one-off provision of EUR 300 million for legal proceedings — without it, the results would have been in line with the consensus. The company maintains its forecast for 2026 and continues to expect an EBIT margin in the range of 4–6%, although it warns of a negative impact from tariffs of approximately 1.25 percentage points.

• Lufthansa is up by as much as 3.5% despite a nominal loss in Q2 2026 — the key factor is the maintenance of full-year forecasts, which, according to JPMorgan, comes as a positive surprise, as the market had already priced in a downward revision. Revenue amounted to EUR 8.75 billion (est. EUR 8.49 billion, +7.6% y/y), the EBIT loss was EUR 612 million compared to an expected loss of EUR 650 million, and adjusted free cash flow rose by 65% y/y to EUR 1.38 billion. Higher fuel costs remain a risk — the conflict in the Middle East is generating additional costs of EUR 1.7 billion in 2026, although 80% of kerosene demand is hedged. Lufthansa is focusing on higher ticket prices and network optimisation to offset this cost.

• Diageo has published its trading update for Q3 of the 2026 financial year — reported net revenue rose by 2.3% to $4.5 billion, with organic growth of just 0.3% (volume +0.4%, price/mix -0.1%). The company confirmed its full-year forecasts, which the market took in its stride — the result shows stabilisation following earlier weaker quarters.

• Continental delivered a positive surprise in Q1 2026 — the adjusted EBIT margin jumped to 11.9% from 6.6% a year earlier, whilst net profit rose to EUR 200 million from EUR 68 million in Q1 2025. The group’s revenue stood at EUR 4.396 billion (in line with estimates), although the tyre division recorded a slight decline to EUR 3.3 billion. The company maintains its outlook for 2026 despite geopolitical uncertainty.

• Daimler Truck reported robust demand in Q1 2026 — incoming orders rose to 114,043 units from 76,222 a year earlier, whilst in the key Trucks North America segment, orders surged by as much as 86% year-on-year. The company maintains its adjusted EBIT forecast at EUR 3.2–3.7 billion for the full year.