📊Market Wrap: Europe Rebouns Despite Higher Oil and Dollar (12.10.2026)

Macroeconomics 🌐

• Investors in global markets are positioning themselves ahead of the US CPI inflation report; MUFG analysts point to dollar consolidation and the vulnerability of tech indices to a short-term correction due to trader hedging.
• Consumer inflation in India unexpectedly accelerated in September to 5.54% YoY (the 11th consecutive month of increase), surpassing market forecasts and increasing pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) toward further monetary policy tightening.
• The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to American economists Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford for their research on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics.
• The Italian government announced tax relief for software investments in the 2027 budget and plans to raise the issue of greater fiscal flexibility at the EU level to cushion energy price pressures.

Commodities 🛢️

• Brent Crude (OIL) (+1.46% today) and WTI Crude (OIL.WTI) (+1.40% today) — oil prices are rising dynamically (Brent breaking through the 105 USD/bbl barrier) in response to a deadly Houthi attack on the Riyadh airport and the impasse around the Strait of Hormuz. This reverses the Asian session move, when the market was reacting to Trump's words about Ukraine and Russia reaching an energy agreement.
• The CEO of Aramco warned that rebuilding inventories could take up to two years, while BMI forecasts prices remaining above $100 in the coming months.
• EU Natural Gas (NATGAS.EU) (+3.43% today) — European gas continues its strong upward wave (+8.67% weekly) driven by supply stability fears and geopolitical risks, while US Natural Gas (NATGAS) falls (-2.44% today).
• Copper (COPPER) (+0.94% today) — the red metal gains value, reaching extreme multi-year valuation levels (5-year z-score at +2.70).
• Precious metals catch a breath: Gold (GOLD) corrects (-0.48% today) to $4,173, while Silver (SILVER) pulls back -0.22% today, despite capital inflows into ETF funds targeting the metal.

European gas is today's top gainer, which is tied not so much to supply fears as to the potential for increased demand in the near term. Source: XTB

Currencies 💱

• Euro (EUR) (EURUSD) (-0.08% today) — the single currency remains on the defensive; Citi analysts highlight fiscal and political pressure in France and are positioning for further euro declines via Euribor contracts.
• British Pound (GBP) (GBPUSD) (+0.09% today) — the pound gave up morning gains and is stabilizing near 1.3235 USD, while GBP/JPY climbs toward the 210.00 barrier due to yen weakness weighed down by high debt and expensive energy imports.
• Indian Rupee: The intervention package presented by the RBI managed to stem pressure on the currency following the high inflation release.
• The Mexican peso is also recovering recent losses. On Friday, it was the weakest currency amid suggestions regarding interest rate cuts.

Stocks and Indices 📈

• US stock markets show caution ahead of the CPI print and the start of major bank earnings releases: S&P 500 (US500) (-0.01% today), while the NASDAQ 100 (US100) sheds -0.19% today.
• Modest gains dominate European indices: Germany's DAX 40 (DE40) rises +0.37% today, and the UK's FTSE 100 (UK100) gains +0.50% today.
• Among Wall Street stocks, Bristol Myers Squibb gains strongly following successful Phase III trial results, as well as Biogen, favored by JPMorgan ahead of upcoming clinical data releases.

A solid rebound across European trading floors alongside declines ahead of the Wall Street open. Source: XTB

Total and Rheinmetall are performing strongest in the Eurostoxx 50 today. Source: XTB

Cryptocurrencies 🪙

• Zcash (ZCASH) (+4.19% today) — experiencing a strong rally (5-year z-score reaches an extreme +4.06), benefiting from improving sentiment around privacy-focused assets and ETF speculation surrounding the Winklevoss brothers.
• Bitcoin (BITCOIN) (-0.11% today) — consolidating below resistance at $83,500; a positive adoption signal comes from South Korea with the launch of the first traditional bank loans backed by Bitcoin.
• Morgan Stanley announced plans to introduce support for tokenized equities in Q1 2027, while international regulators called for coordinated crisis procedures amid the growing stablecoin market.

Geopolitics 🌍

• Middle East escalation: Following a Houthi drone and missile attack on Riyadh International Airport (13 fatalities), Saudi Arabia promised a firm military response, putting the security of oil routes in question.
• War in Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared support for the "energy truce" pushed by Donald Trump, emphasizing the need for reciprocity from Russia; the Kremlin confirmed ongoing contacts with the US, though excluding a temporary election truce in favor of a "lasting settlement."
• EU-China trade relations: A new agreement aims to restrict $7.5 billion worth of Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to Europe.

Suggested to Watch

• Zcash (ZCASH) — extreme 5-year z-score (+4.06) and a dynamic surge (+4.19% today, nearly +10% over the week) driven by ETF speculation create conditions for heightened volatility.
• Brent Crude (OIL) — rally above $105 (+1.46% today) fueled by the attack on the Saudi airport and transit issues through the Strait of Hormuz; the market negates hopes for a swift energy truce.
• EU Natural Gas (NATGAS.EU) — a jump of +3.43% today and nearly +9% weekly demonstrates the return of a geopolitical premium to the European energy market amid Middle Eastern escalation.