Continuously since 1992, every candidate who won in Florida has won the election. More importantly for Trump, no Republican candidate has won the election without Florida within the last 100 years. What are the polls like? It turns out that Biden has the advantage, although very modest, quietly fitting inside the statistical error.
Fivethirtyeight analysts indicate that if Biden wins in Florida, the probability of him winning the election will be 95%. In turn, if he loses the elections there, the probability of winning the entire election will drop to 40%. Despite the fact that Pennsylvania will better reflect the mood of the public in other swing states, Florida will show the results first. Most of the results should be available as early as 12:00 AM GMT, while some polling stations will be open until 1:00 AM GMT.
It is worth noting that Florida is currently Trump's "home" state. He changed his residence to Palm Beach County in 2019. Will Florida employers blame Trump for shutting down their businesses? From March about 100 thousand. of them had to suspend their activities. As of March, 3.5 million Florida citizens have applied for unemployment benefits.
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