The new year in financial markets has commenced with a flurry of pivotal macroeconomic data and the onset of another earnings season on Wall Street. Following the latest US labor market report, investors are now shifting their focus toward the upcoming inflation print. With the first major corporate financial reports due this week, the spotlight falls squarely on three key markets: EURUSD, US500, and SILVER.
EURUSD
While the very beginning of the week appears quiet on the macroeconomic front, Tuesday will bring the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for December. Recent mixed signals from the economy have prompted a significant downward revision in market expectations for the scale of interest rate cuts this year. The probability of a rate reduction as early as March has plummeted to just 30%, a sharp decline from the 50% seen recently. Market consensus suggests that headline inflation will remain elevated at 2.7%, with a slight rebound expected in the core indicator. Should these forecasts materialize, the US dollar could find fresh momentum for further appreciation.
US500 (S&P 500)
Uncertainty over the legality of Trump’s tariffs persists, but investor attention is pivoting toward the start of the quarterly earnings season on Wall Street. In keeping with tradition, the week will be dominated by the banking sector. JPMorgan and BNY Mellon are set to report on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday. Thursday will see reports from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Additionally, a key update for the technology sector will come on Thursday from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s leading chipmaker. Analysts anticipate robust revenue and profit growth for the final quarter of 2025, particularly for banks benefiting from a resurgence in investment banking and a surge in trading activity.
SILVER
Silver is coming off an exceptionally strong 2025. Despite a correction in late December, the beginning of January has seen an attempt to regain upward momentum. However, concerns are mounting over a broader correction in the precious metals space, particularly among assets that saw the most aggressive gains. In the silver market, we are currently observing a retreat by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) selling physical bullion. Meanwhile, investor interest in short positions is rising, and the annual rebalancing of commodity indices could trigger a wave of long-position liquidations in the futures market. The coming days will reveal whether this confluence of negative factors is enough to break silver’s winning streak, which has been intact since May 2025.
Daily summary: Markets recover optimism at the end of the week
US OPEN: Investors exercise caution in the face of uncertainty.
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