US Open: Wall Street rises ahead of Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole speech 🚩 Marvell Technology and PayPal decline

Wall Street opened Friday’s session on a calm note, with the S&P 500 trading close to Thursday’s closing levels after a strong rebound in the technology sector. Investors are primarily waiting for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, which could shape expectations for the path of interest rates in the coming months. Fed funds futures currently price in around a 64% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the next Fed meeting, meaning that any more hawkish or dovish wording could trigger stronger market volatility. At the same time, earnings season continues to drive sharp moves in individual stocks, including PayPal and Marvell. Following Thursday’s rally triggered by Nvidia’s results, the major U.S. indices are currently on track to finish the week in positive territory.

• S&P 500 is up around 0.1%, Dow Jones gains about 0.2%, while Nasdaq Composite rises roughly 0.3%, pointing to a relatively cautious start to the session ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech at 4:00 PM.
• On Thursday, Nvidia gained nearly 9% following its earnings report, while the technology sector, S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their best session since August 4.
• The S&P 500 information technology sector jumped as much as 3.4% on Thursday, while all other sectors finished lower, marking the strongest such divergence since March 2001.
• Technology is currently the second-best performing S&P 500 sector in 2026, up around 23.7%, behind only energy, which has gained approximately 37.7%.
• Asian markets ended the session mixed: the Nikkei 225 rose 0.41%, Kospi fell 1.79%, CSI 300 lost 0.46%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.6%.
• All three major U.S. indices are on track to finish the week higher, while a positive close for the Dow Jones would mark its first winning week in three.
• According to BCA Research, total depreciation costs related to hyperscaler infrastructure could rise above $500 billion by 2030. That would be comparable to the expected combined operating profit of the five largest companies in 2026, highlighting how strongly rising AI investment could weigh on future earnings.

US100 chart (D1 interval)

Company news

• PayPal: Shares are down nearly 16% after reports that Advent and Stripe withdrew from talks over a potential acquisition of the company. The market had previously priced in the possibility of one of the largest leveraged buyouts, so the decision by the potential buyers quickly removed the M&A premium from the stock.
• Affirm: Shares are up around 13% after better-than-expected results. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue reached $1.17 billion versus the $1.11 billion consensus, while the company also issued a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook for the next quarter. This supports the view that demand for buy now, pay later solutions remains solid despite a challenging consumer environment.
• Elastic: Shares are up more than 17% following stronger full-year guidance. The company expects adjusted EPS of $3.29–$3.37 compared with the $3.24 expected by analysts. The market is reacting positively not only to the higher guidance itself, but also to signs that demand for analytics and search tools remains resilient.
• Tyson Foods and JBS: Shares of both meat producers are falling following comments from Donald Trump regarding possible changes to food processing rules. The president said legal documents were being prepared that could make it easier for farmers and ranchers to process their own food, while strongly criticizing the concentration of the market in the hands of several major companies. For Tyson and JBS, investors are interpreting this as a potential regulatory risk and an attempt to weaken the competitive advantage of the largest players in the U.S. meat industry.
• Gap: Shares are up around 17% after the company appointed a new head of Old Navy, while results surprised positively on profitability despite a decline in comparable sales at the brand. Investors reacted favorably to signs of better cost control and improving margins.
• Rubrik: Shares are down around 6.4% despite second-quarter results coming in above expectations. The move appears to reflect profit-taking after a strong prior rally and elevated expectations ahead of the quarterly report.
• Solstice Advanced Materials: Shares are down around 15% after the company and Element Solutions mutually agreed to terminate their planned merger. The reaction suggests investors had previously priced in meaningful value from the combination.

Marvell falls 6% despite strong results. The market expected more

Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) shares are falling after the market open despite results that nominally exceeded analysts’ expectations. Fiscal second-quarter revenue came in at $2.74 billion versus the $2.72 billion consensus and rose 37% year over year, while EPS reached $0.94 compared with the $0.93 expected. The issue was therefore not the results themselves, but the scale of expectations after a very strong rally in the stock.

Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to around $18 billion, implying roughly 50% year-over-year growth and clearly above its previous forecast of $16.5 billion. However, the market had been looking for an even stronger outlook, especially after reports of a potentially very large partnership with Google in AI chips. The company also provided limited new detail on the structure of future growth and margins, which reduced investor enthusiasm.

Fundamentally, Marvell continues to benefit from very strong demand for networking, connectivity and custom silicon used in AI data centers. Bank of America, UBS, Barclays, Wells Fargo and Citi remain positive on the stock, but after a roughly 184% year-to-date rally, the bar for future reports is extremely high. The current reaction therefore looks more like a correction in elevated expectations than a sign of a deterioration in the underlying business trend.

Source: xStation5