Nasdaq futures have snapped a three-day losing streak, bouncing off the 30-day exponential moving average on renewed AI optimism after record-breaking results from semiconductor giant TSMC. Easing geopolitical tensions are also supporting risk appetite, though the ongoing earnings season continues to keep investors on their toes.
Yesterday’s sell-off in US100 halted before 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level of the Oct-Nov. 2025 selling wave. The contract closed at EMA30 (light purple), set for a successful rebound from the beginning of European trading. The gains are currently capped by the 78.6 Fibo level and could either accelerate or stall in the face of further bank earnings later this session. Source: xStation5
What is driving US100 today?
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TSMC posted a milestone of 1 trillion TWD revenue, with a record 35% net income growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. High-performance computing remains the primary engine of business; advanced chips (7nm or smaller) now account for 77% of wafer revenue.
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The company plans to spend $52–56 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, signaling strong confidence in the longevity of the global AI boom. The company expects revenue growth of around 30%, exceeding analyst estimates, as demand for AI accelerators from clients like Nvidia, AMD and major data center operators remains robust. Expansion includes new fabrication facilities in the US, Japan, and Germany, while TSMC maintains its advanced chip development in Taiwan.
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Geopolitical risk has eased slightly after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a softer tone on Iran, suggesting protests have calmed and reducing fears of imminent U.S. military action. This helped temper safe‑haven demand that had pushed gold and oil to multi‑session highs. Despite the pullback, geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and ongoing conflicts continue to limit the risk-hunger on Wall Street.
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U.S. bank earnings could have a dual impact on tech. Strong Q4 results from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock may boost risk appetite on Wall Street, but capital rebalancing could shift funds back into recently pressured financials, potentially limiting further gains in tech stocks like Nvidia (up 0.9% premarket).
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