Donald Trump reports the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been confirmed by the Iranian Foreign Minister. Seyed Abbas Araghchi indicates that opening the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing ceasefire is possible following the reach of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran.
Trump reports on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Truth
The Iranian Foreign Minister indicates that thanks to the ceasefire in Lebanon, and in accordance with previous agreements, the Strait of Hormuz is being opened. It is worth noting that the opening is currently set until Tuesday, when the first ceasefire between the US and Iran expires. Nevertheless, the tone of recent changes suggests that we are already past the climax of the entire conflict. Source: X
WTI crude is retreating by 9% today (Brent oil's change is larger, but this is due to the launch of a new futures contract). WTI crude is falling today from around $90 to below $82 per barrel. It is worth noting that the 61.8% retracement of the entire upward wave from this year is currently being tested.
It should be emphasized that opening the Strait of Hormuz is one thing, but resuming exports is another. Much uncertainty remains, primarily related to how strongly exports can increase in the near future. If data regarding the number of ships proves disappointing, a return to price growth cannot be ruled out. However, if oil begins to flow broadly through the Strait of Hormuz, the price of WTI crude could drop to the $75-$80 per barrel range at the beginning of next week. Disappointment regarding potential negotiations could return prices to $90 per barrel.
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