BREAKING: Another big increase of oil inventories despite Middle East disruption

The latest EIA report delivers a surprisingly bearish signal for crude, even as geopolitical tensions remain high.

Unexpected Crude Build (+5,451K): This is the second consecutive large build, which is difficult to reconcile with the massive disruptions in the Middle East.
Shrinking Product Stocks: Despite the crude surplus, gasoline (-2,593K) and distillates (-1,032K) continue to draw down faster than expected. This indicates that while raw supply is increasing in the U.S., refined products are still in high demand.
Geopolitical Pivot: The price drop is largely driven by speculation that Trump may announce a de-escalation or a shift in policy regarding Iran tonight.

The market is at a crossroads. The physical data shows a growing U.S. crude surplus, yet eyes remain fixed on the war. If the "geopolitical premium" evaporates due to diplomatic shifts, the current surplus could accelerate the price correction toward the $75–$80 target suggested by the term structure.

The price of crude oil is not responding heavily on the data from the EIA report, although it halted declines from the previous severals minutes. The price is slightly below 100 USD per barrel and investors await the Trump speach in the evening US time which may spur another big moves on the price.

21 April 2026, 6:39 PM

Daily Summary: As a ceasefire drifts away, markets lose ground

21 April 2026, 5:44 PM

Warsh before the Senate: “I will not be a tool of the president” and signals Fed reform agenda

21 April 2026, 3:04 PM

US Open: Macro Up, Tensions Down!

21 April 2026, 3:00 PM

Defense sector earnings: RTX, Thales and Northrop Grumman

Commodities

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
_cfuvid

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-98728395-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 730 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
_ttp	Expiration date 89 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 89 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days