BREAKING: EURUSD down 0.4% after the FOMC!

As widely expected, the FOMC decided to keep rates steady, with the federal funds rate still at 3.50%-3.75%. The vote was unanimous.

Figure 1: US Interest Rates & Bond Yields (1998 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 17.06.2026

What is significantly more important than the decision itself, is the Dot Plot - a projection of the FOMC interest rates going forward. We've seen an upward revision to its entire path. Quite a substantial one, considerably above what market was expecting. We can definitely consider this to be a hawkish shift from the committee. Half of the policymakers (9/18) are now expecting a rate hike before the end of the year. A third (6/18) foresees two hikes as the baseline scenario.

Figure 2: FOMC Dot Plot (2026 - 2028+)
Source: FOMC, 17.06.2026

The repricing of US rates is very sharp, with markets now fully pricing in a hike by the end of the year and seeing 2 rate increases by mid-2027 as the baseline scenario.

The statement... The statement is a rather unusual one. Although it is true that chairman Warsh has underlined that he wants Fed to stop explaining everything so explicitly in recent days, we did not expect it to go this far. The entire document is 132-word long and You can read it in roughly 35 seconds.

8 July 2026, 7:25 PM

Daily Summary - Escalation in the Middle East. FOMC fears inflation

8 July 2026, 7:20 PM

FOMC Minutes: Hawkish tone confirmed. EURUSD rebounds nonetheless

8 July 2026, 6:07 PM

Trump in Ankara does not signal total escalation. Oil limits gains, and Nasdaq parries losses

8 July 2026, 4:51 PM

US500 loses 1% ahead of minutes

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
_cfuvid

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-98728395-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 730 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
_ttp	Expiration date 89 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 89 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days