BREAKING: EURUSD surges after much weaker NFP data 💲

1:30 PM 5 September 2025

01:30 PM BST, United States - Employment Data for August:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: actual 22K; forecast 75K; previous 79K;

  • Unemployment Rate: actual 4.3%; forecast 4.3%; previous 4.2%;

  • Average Hourly Earnings: actual 3.7% YoY; forecast 3.7% YoY; previous 3.9% YoY;

  • Private Nonfarm Payrolls: actual 38K; forecast 75K; previous 77K;

  • Government Payrolls: actual -16.0K; previous 2.0K;

  • Manufacturing Payrolls: actual -12K; forecast -5K; previous -2K;

  • Participation Rate: actual 62.3%; previous 62.2%;

 

 

Payrolls miss, revisions add fuel

Employment data came in well below expectations for August. In addition, there were revisions to the last two months (June and July), with a slight upward revision for July – June to −13k (from +14k) and July to +79k (from +73k), leaving employment for June–July 21k lower than previously reported.

EURUSD is sharply higher, breaking out of the month-long consolidation capped by 1,172 level. The market is currently pricing a full rate cut in September, with potentially another in October and December. Source: xStation5

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