BREAKING: Lower inventory draw than expected. NATGAS extends decline

4:34 PM 18 January 2024

EIA Natural Gas Change BCF: -154B (Forecast -165B, Previous -140B).

The inventories draw was lower than expected, despite the recent cold blast in the US. Moreover, weather prospects are getting better and indicate that temperatures should be higher than normal in early February. We should remember that after today session, there will be a significant rollover on Natgas of around 15% (the price will open tomorrow below 2.3-2.4 USD/MMBTU). 

The decrease in inventories was higher than last year, which pointed to further decrease of comparative inventories. However, market was expecting much higher decline, even more than 200 BCF because of the harsh winter condition last week. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Rollover will send the futures price below 2.3-2.4 USD per MMBTU. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

The price has decreased to the lowest level in today's session. The next support lies slightly above 61.8 Fibo retracement when we can see that price reacted in the past. Source: xStation5

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