BREAKING: Mixed JOLTS & University of Michigan data❓

Inflation expectations and consumer sentiment (University of Michigan, March):

• 1-year: 3.4% (Expected: 3.6%; Previous: 3.4%)
• 5-year: 3.2% (Expected: 3.4%; Previous: 3.3%)
• Consumer expectations: 55.5 (Expected: 55.0; Previous: 56.6)
• Current conditions: 57.8 (Expected: 54.9; Previous: 56.6)

US job openings (January):

• JOLTS: 6.946M (Expected: 6.760M; Previous: 6.555M)

Inflation expectations fell at the turn of February and March despite the spectre of a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and consumer sentiment also improved. However, this is not good news. In the current economic and market context, declining expectations suggest that consumers’ financial room is tightening significantly. At the same time, sentiment readings, despite the improvement, still remain at clearly recessionary levels.

The labor market looks similar. JOLTS rose above expectations to 6.9 million job openings. This is an increase, and notably above forecasts. That does not change the fact that it is still about 15% lower than a year ago, and the indicator has remained in a downtrend since 2023.