BREAKING: US CPI in line with expectations; US100 above local highs 📈

2:30 PM 12 December 2023

- US, US CPI data for November.

CPI inflation (YoY). Actual: 3,1% y/y. Expected: 3.1% y/y. Earlier: 3.2% y/y.
Core inflation (YoY). Actual: 4,0% y/y. Expected: 4% y/y. Earlier: 4% y/y.
CPI inflation (MoM). Actual: 0,1% m/m. Expected: 0% m/m. Earlier: 0% m/m.
Core CPI inflation (MoM). Actual: 0,3% m/m. Expected: 0.3% m/m. Earlier: 0.2% m/m.
Dollar softer after publication, 2024 cuts priced in up to 117 from 115 bps.
Futures contracts tied to Fed policy rate price in March 2024 start to Fed rate cuts.
It seems that shelter (+6.0% y/y) and motor vehicle insurance (+19.2%) are the only real sources of worrisome upward pressure in prices left.

Annual inflation is falling as expected, although monthly inflation is nevertheless rising marginally. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

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