Morning wrap (04.03.2026)

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Asian markets are declining for a third consecutive session amid escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran. Japan’s JP225 is down 1.50% to 54,400 points, Chinese indices are losing between 0.70–1.50%, and Australia’s AU200cash is down 0.75%.
The Korean Kospi index also stands out. Investors used the rise in tensions in the Middle East as an opportunity to take profits after parabolic gains in recent months. The index is down 12% today, yet it remains 18% higher year-to-date.
Oil prices are gaining around 2% today, with OIL.WTI trading at 76.25 USD per barrel and Brent at 83.50 USD. Prices rose following attacks near the Strait of Hormuz that disrupted tanker traffic. Late yesterday, Trump announced naval protection and insurance support for energy transport in hopes of stabilizing the situation.
The situation on the forex market is mixed today. Among the weakest currencies is the Australian dollar (AUD), while on the other side are the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the Swiss franc (CHF).
Precious metals are rebounding after yesterday’s sell-off. Gold is up 1.20% to 5,120 USD per ounce, and silver is gaining 3.20% to 83.30 USD per ounce.
Official PMI indicators in China remained in contraction territory, with the composite index at 49.5, signaling continued weakness in the domestic economy. Meanwhile, the unofficial Caixin PMI rose to 52.1 — the highest level since the pandemic. The improvement was driven by strong growth in new orders and exports. The conflicting data complicates the assessment of China’s recovery trajectory.
Stronger unofficial data pointed to increased production and inventory rebuilding. Raw material costs reached their highest level in 44 months, mainly due to metals. Producers partially passed on costs to customers, although employment growth remained moderate.
Japanese authorities once again emphasized their readiness to act in the forex market, including potential currency intervention. Despite geopolitical tensions, the yen did not fulfill its safe-haven role, mainly due to rising oil prices, which negatively affect Japan’s trade balance.
Australia’s GDP rose by 0.8% q/q and 2.6% y/y, exceeding expectations. Growth momentum has clearly improved compared to the lows of mid-2024. However, household consumption remains cautious.

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