BREAKING: US PCE inflation higher than expected 📈

1:31 PM 31 July 2025

01:30 PM BST, United States - Inflation Data for June:

  • PCE Price index: actual 2.6% YoY; forecast 2.5% YoY; previous 2.4% YoY;

  • PCE price index: actual 0.3% MoM; forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;

  • Core PCE Price Index: actual 2.8% YoY; forecast 2.7% YoY; previous 2.8% YoY;

  • Core PCE Price Index: actual 0.3% MoM; forecast 0.3% MoM; previous 0.2% MoM;

  • Real Personal Consumption: actual 0.1% MoM; previous -0.2% MoM;

  • Personal Spending: actual 0.3% MoM; forecast 0.4% MoM; previous 0.0% MoM;

  • Personal Income: actual 0.3% MoM; forecast 0.2% MoM; previous -0.4% MoM;

 

01:30 PM BST, United States - Employment Data:

  • Initial Jobless Claims: actual 218K; forecast 222K; previous 217K;

  • 4-Week Avg.: actual 221.00K; previous 224.50K;

  • Continuing Jobless Claims: actual 1,946K; forecast 1,960K; previous 1,946K;

 

Fed's preffered inflation gauge came in higher than expected, with core PCE showining stickiness and remaining at 2.8% (forecast: 2.7%). Jobless claims, on the other hand, showed a lesser pressure from the labour market, increasing only by 1 thousand, compared to the expected 5 thousands increase. The batch of data is generally in line with Fed's current positioning, with Jerome Powell citing yesterday "still somewhat elevated inflation" and "solid labour market". EURUSD remained flat, as price already reflects Fed's somewhat hawkish stance.

 

Source: xStation5

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